Daily write-up - Nov 10th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Sandown and Ffos Las in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

It’s strange to think that this is only the second weekend of the season: with the ground riding close to heavy - and lots of small fields, it feels more like January/February time.

They are never easy months to deal with - but at least you tend to have guaranteed fitness.
We’ve currently got borderline unraceable conditions - and a number of unfit horses.
That’s quite a combination !

The issue is, it makes finding bets very hard...

In terms of todays ‘big’ races, then there are 3 graded events at Navan, plus a listed chase at Sandown.
Between them, they have attracted a total of just 20 runners - only half of which have a realistic chance of winning.
That generally doesn’t make for great betting races.

The veterans chase at Sandown is the one big race on the day with a decent size field - however, with question marks over the ground and the fitness of many of the runners, there is too much guesswork required for me to feel comfortable getting involved.

I did get very close to tipping at Navan - but the fragile markets (even at 10:30 !) did their thing and the price of the horse I was interested in was cut, just before I was able to issue the tip !

As a consequence, you’re going to have to settle for my views on those races - plus a few of the class 3 and 4 contests, which are being run at Sandown and Ffos Las… 


Sandown

12:45

Lord of the Island and Laxey are the 2 who appeal most in this - however both have too many question marks over them to be confident selections…
Lord of the Island should be well suited to todays conditions - having won a class 1 handicap over the course in heavy ground, 3 seasons ago.
He runs from a mark just 1 pound higher today - and this is a much weaker race - so from a handicapping perspective, he has every chance.
However, he has only seen the course 3 times since then - and is now 11 years old.
If the ability remains, he should win - but there’s obviously a distinct possibility that he’s not as good as he used to be…
I would expect the market to guide on his chance.
Laxey is a very different beast, in that he is only 5 - and has run only 3 times over hurdles (in fact, you couldn’t get much different !).
He’s stepping up in trip - and will be facing heavy ground for the first time - so you can only guess as to how he will cope.
My guess is that he will be fine: Henry Dalys horses rarely fail through a lack of stamina.
Whether he will be good enough, is a different matter - but again, I would expect the market to guide.

1:15

Champagne Court has been made quite a short priced favourite for this, considering it is his chasing debut.
That said, he has some strong hurdles form - and if he can translate that to the bigger obstacles, he is very much the one to beat.
He ran second in a couple of PTPs before embarking on his career under rules - so there is reason to think he should be fine jumping a fence.
However, Sandown is a tricky course - particularly for the inexperienced.
I’m not sure I’d want to side with him at 5/2 - but I don’t want to take him on, either...
Of his opponents, then Chambard is the one that appeals most.
He is also making his chasing debut - but doesn’t have any previous form jumping fences (his background is French NH flat races).
The big attraction with him, is that he’s trained by Venetia - and her horses are in sparking form.

2:25

The seasonal re-appearance of Santini, is the highlight of the Sandown card.
Always considered to be from the very top drawer, his first season over fences added some substance to his reputation.
He may only have won once from 3 outings - but he lost little in his 2 defeats - and at this point in time, he would be my idea of the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
Needless to say, I expect him to take this, up against just 3 opponents.
That said, I don't necessarily expect him to take it comfortably, as 3 miles around Sandown, is a barely satiable test for him.
I’ll be surprised if his class doesn't see him through though - and maybe his price for the big one in March, might even get a touch bigger !
Well, I can hope, can’t I ?!

3:30

I was hoping to find something to tip in this race - but unfortunately, I couldn’t find anything that I felt sufficiently comfortable with.
Again, things aren’t helped by those twin issues: ground - and fitness.
Over half the field are making their seasonal debuts (so we have to guess on their fitness) - and whilst the ground is described as good to soft on the chase course - I suspect it is going to be a fair bit softer than that, as it is heavy on the hurdles course !
The other issue with veterans chases, is judging the speed of decline of the runners.
At almost 14, Loose Chips is likely to be hurtling towards the pastures - but I do wonder if he might have one last pay day in him.
He won this race 12 months ago, off a mark 7lb higher - and has actually dropped over a stone in the handicap, this calendar year.
Ordinarily, that would be ridiculous - but for a 13 year old horse, it is maybe understandable.
He shaped with some promise on his seasonal debut at Carlisle - and I’m sure he ran there, simply to tee him up for today.
I could see him running very well - and I think he will make a good back to lay in-running.
Whether he will be able to withstand the challengers after the Pond fence, only time will tell…
Le Reve is the other one of major interest - but I just fear he might need his first run of the season.
If he is cherry ripe, then over a course and distance at which he excels, he could be the one to run down Loose Chips.


Ffos Las

12:55

If I did tip in class 4 races, I would be quite tempted by Brandon Roc in this.
He won on soft ground on his seasonal debut, 12 months ago - and off a mark just 3lb lower than he races from today.
His 2 subsequent runs last season, left a lot to be desired - but he could be the sort who goes best when fresh.
Kim Bailey has his horses in really good form - and 6/1 seems a fair price (accepting the risks that come with betting in relatively low grade contests).

3:05

Champers on Ice is the other one that interests me at the Welsh track.
He threatened to be top class a few seasons back - and whilst that didn’t quite happen, I suspect he still has sufficient ability to win a race of this nature.
He only ran twice last season - but a repeat of his 4th at Haydock on his seasonal debut, would probably be good enough to take todays race.
He was subsequently pulled up in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham - but was just a 10/1 shot that day.
This race is a world apart from that - and he’s off a mark 3lb lower.
He can also be backed at 4/1 - which strikes me as fair…


Navan

12:35

There are 6 runners in this grade 3 event (more than the 2 other graded events on the card) - but only 3 of them seem to have a realistic chance of winning.
Abacadabras has been installed favourite - and I think that is just about right.
He had some top class bumper form (including a 4th placing in the Cheltenham champion bumper) - and made a winning hurdling debut at Gowran last month.
He sets a standard which would be high enough to win an average renewal.
His main opponents are Fast Buck and Latest Exhibition.
The former sets the standard in terms of hurdling form - having won a listed event at Galway in July.
However, he lacks Abacadabras potential…
It’s hard to get a handle on Latest Exhibition. He won his only hurdles race - beating a well fancied Gordon Elliot runner.
However that was just a maiden, so the form isn’t easy to assess.
Clearly it’s not a race you could tackle with any confidence - but hopefully it will provide some valuable pointers for the future.

1:05

Apples Jade is the main attraction on the Navan card - and it will be a big surprise if she is beaten in this.
She won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and followed up in her next 3 races, before coming unstuck at the spring festivals.
In fairness, even her spring time form (particularly her run at Aintree), would be good enough to take todays contest.
Realistically, only Bacardys should be able to test her - and he’s hardly a model of consistency !
Robbie Power taking over in the saddle from the injured Jack Kennedy, is an interesting move for Apples Jade.
However, I expect him to dictate the fractions - and come home unchallenged.

2:10

I had intended to take a chance on Ballyoisin in this.
He was a 9/2 shot early - and 4/1 was generally available at 10:00.
However, at 10:19 (precisely !), his price was cut to 7/2 by just about every bookmaker.
He was still trading at over 5 on BF - so I don’t know what triggered it (though I do know that the bookies are particularly sensitive on Irish racing).
I think that price is about right (or at least, I don’t see a 20% margin in it) - so I’m no longer prepared to tip him.

In terms of the case for him:
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - by 23 lengths, easing up !
In fairness, todays opposition is a good deal stronger than it was 12 months ago - but I still think he is the one to beat.
Clearly, todays test suits him well - but I think the key to Ballyoisin is a small field and uncontested lead.
He will certainly get the former - and I’m optimistic that he’ll also get the latter.
His 2 main rivals are Duc des Genievres and A Plus Tard.
Both were hugely impressive winners at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and are expected to go on to better things this season.
And that is the issue with them - today is like to be a stepping stone for them both - whilst it could well be Ballyoisin’s ‘Cup Final’.
On ratings, A Plus Tard should be the main danger to Ballyoisin - but I’m sure he wants further than todays minimum trip.
Ultimately, this is likely to come down to whether Mark Walsh can get Balllyoisin jumping - and judge the fractions correctly.
If he can, then I would be optimistic that he will be able to take advantage of his race fitness and come home in front.


Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB




Mentions

Sand 12:45 Lord of the Island (S ) & Laxey (S )
Ffos 12:55 Brandon Roc (C )
Ffos 3:05 Champers on Ice (O )
Nav 2:10 Ballyoisin (P )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions


*Back-to lay IR

Sand 3:30 Loose Chips


*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race

Review of the day

There was always a chance, that today was going to end up a disappointment…

There were so few opportunities for me this morning - and such a lot of uncertainty.
Trying to put us on the right horses, was never going to be easy.

I decided to keep things tight - and issued just 3 tips - but unfortunately, non of them were good enough.

Acaro was the first tip to run - and he did best of the trio.

He only finished third - and never really looked like winning.
However he ran a good race for a 16/1 shot (or even a 10/1 shot !) - and I would expect him to build on that performance, as the season progresses.

Next up, it was the big hope of the day: Danse Idol.

I really did fancy her - but I also know that when I fancy them to that extent, they often don’t win (unless they are too short for me to tip !)…

Certainly, if the market had fancied her as much as me, she would have been sent off at around 6/4 !

In the race itself, she travelled exuberantly - probably too exuberantly !
As a consequence, it became obvious not long after turning in, that she had no more to give.

I suspect the run will have brought on massively (by taking away the freshness) - and if they ran the race again in a fortnights time, I’m sure she would go very close - but that is no consolation.

Neither is the fact that the race was won by Misty Bloom.
I nominated her as the main danger - and briefly considered tipping her as a saver.
However, I figured that would suggest a lack of confidence in the Danse Idol.
Such is life…

The Young Master was the final tip on the day - and I wish I’d not bothered with him.
I knew he didn’t want significant rain - but thought he would be pulled from the race if the ground got too soft.

However, I think connections had got fed up with pulling out of races - and figured they may as well let him take his chance (in fairness, it’s hard to think the ground is going to firm up any time soon).

You need everything in your favour to win these races - and with the ground unsuitable, it was no surprise he ended up well beaten.

By contrast, soft ground was just what Give me a Copper wanted - and he came home a very game winner…

As for the Mentions:
Then Shady Oaks looked slow - and not fit enough. I’ve no idea why Jamie Moore went up to Liverpool just to ride him (unless he has a ticket for tomorrows big football match !).
Oldgrangewood ran really well to finish third: but bumped into two !
Cepage ran a cracker under top weight - but he himself, was incredibly unlucky to run into Riders inthe Storm on his debut for Nigel Twiston Davies.
The horse was decent last season but NTD has clearly improved him by at least 7lb.
Rosy World also ran a fair race - considering things didn’t work out for her.
She had to make her own running and ended up a sitting duck for Diomede des Mottes and Skandiburg.
They tracked her to the final flight and then had a sprint race to the finish - which Skandiburg won.

There will be better days…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 9th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wincanton, Aintree and Kelso in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland.

We will need to wait another week, before the new NH season really takes off (with the 3 day Cheltenham ‘Open’ meeting).
Things had been gradually building - but the momentum slows a little today...

Wincanton host a reasonable meeting - but 2 of their bigger races have attracted small, uncompetitive fields.
Whilst at Aintree, all of the fields are on the small size.
The racing at Kelso lacks the quality required for me to tip; and there is nothing suitable at Naas either.

As a consequence, there are very few races for me to get involved with.

More than that, the rain is playing games again !

The ground at Wincanton is currently ‘good’ - but there is significant rain forecast before racing, so it’s anyones guess how it will ride.
There is less guesswork required at Aintree, where conditions are already described as ‘soft’.
However, rain is also forecast there - so there must be a chance it will be edging towards heavy, come the off…

With so few opportunities - and uncertainty surrounding conditions - I had little choice other than to take things easy, from a tipping perspective.

We’ve a long old season ahead of us - so it’s silly to try and force it, when things are not in our favour.

As a consequence - and with Paint the Dream a NR - I’ve ended up with just 3 tips on the day.

Here’s the rational behind them - along with my thoughts on the afternoons other big races…


Wincanton

1:15

I think it is worth taking a small chance on Acaro in this…
He made a pleasing seasonal debut at Fontwell, a fortnight ago, when finishing third to Waikiki Waves.
He was prominent throughout, that day, only giving best up the home straight.
I would hope he would come on for that run - and as he’s only 5 years old, there is obviously still plenty of scope for improvement.
In truth, he will need to improve if he s going to get the better of Enola Gay and Saintemilion.
They met over todays course and distance, in April, with the former coming out on top by 6 lengths.
There is an 8lb turn around in the weights today, which should makes things much closer.
I suspect it will come down to which one is more tuned for their reappearance - and which one handles underfoot conditions best.
I’d have a slight preference for Enola Gay - but so does the market, so there is no angle there…
Of the others, then Keep Moving and Native Robin are 2 of potential interest - but again, the market has them priced about right.
I didn’t feel that was the case with Acaro, at the early prices - so in the circumstances, figured him worth a small play.

1:50

The case for Danse Idol in this, does look compelling - almost scarily so !
She is trained by Paul Nichols, who has an excellent record at Wincanton (his ‘home’ course) - and historically he has done particularly well at this meeting.
Danse Idol herself, is a relatively unexposed 6 year old, who is yet to finish out of the first 2, in 5 runs over hurdles.
More than that, 3 of those runs were at Listed/Graded level - which suggests an opening mark of 129, is generous.
That suggestion is backed up, if you delve a little deeper into her form…
She finished 16 lengths in front of Dullahow Gesture at Sandown in February - yet the pair meet at level weights today.
She also beat Printing Dollars by 3 lengths on her hurdling debut last December - but that one is now rated 134 (and didn’t appear to show as much subsequent improvement as Danse idol).
My feeling is that Danse Idol has at least 7lb in hand of her current mark - and that very much makes her the one to beat.
Ofcourse, she needs to be able to handle todays conditions - but I don’t see an issue with (regardless of whether it rains).
And there is a theoretical doubt concerning her fitness, as this is her seasonal debut.
However, todays race is run in memory of Richard Barber.
He was a great supporter of Nichols in his early days as a trainer - and I’m absolutely sure Nichols will want to win the contest (and that’s ignoring the incentive of the £17K first prize !).
In short, I just can’t see any holes in the case for Danse Idol.
That said, she does have 15 rival to overcome - and I’ve been too long in this game to know there is no such thing as a certainty !
Of her rivals - then nothing particularly stands out - although there are quite a few that I could see running well.
Top of the list, is probably Misty Bloom - and at a double figure price, she is worth a small (unofficial) saver….

2:25

All things being equal, I would expect Reverse Tank to take this.
He was a dual grade 1 wining novice hurdler last season (at Aintree and Punchestown) - and he ran well enough on his chasing debut at Chepstow, last month.
He was expected to win that as well - and for most of the race, looked likely to do so. However, a slow jump at the final fence, cost him momentum, and Jarveys Plate over took him on the run in.
In truth, he didn’t lose a great deal in defeat - and assuming that run has sharpened him up, he will take all of the beating in this.
The mare, If you Say Run, is the one most likely to follow him home.
She receives a 7lb sex allowance from Reverse Tank - and whilst that still sees him ahead on official ratings, there shouldn’t be too much in it.
However, Revere Tank has got the greater scope - and has also got race fitness on his side.
Non of the other 4 runners should really be good enough to get involved.
That said, Garo De Juilly looks a tad over-priced at 20/1.
If the race is incident free, I wouldn’t expect him to do better than third: But it is a novice chase - and Wincanton is a tricky jumping test - so an error free round for all 6 novices, is not guaranteed.
If things do get a but messy, I could see him taking advantage (and possibly running into a place).

3:00

I couldn’t consider backing Fusil Raffles at 1/2 - but I wouldn’t want to oppose him, either…
On official ratings, he has very little in hand of Grand Sancy - and that one has the advantage of race fitness.
However, Fusil Raffles has endless scope for improvement, having won his only 2 races for Nicky Henderson: firstly when destroying Beat the Judge in a grade 2 race at Kempton; and then when getting the better of Fakir D’oudaries in the 4 year old Champion hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
Ofcourse, there is a danger that he’s not trained on.
However Nicky Henderson seems pretty bullish - and I suspect he’ll prove a class above, Grand Sancy.
And if that is the case, then I think he’s almost sure to win.
Certainly Grand Sancy looks by far the biggest danger to Fusil Raffles - and at a price of 4/1, it could be argued that he is effectively an EW bet to nothing.
You win, if he manages to get the better of Fusil Raffles: and get your money back if he finishes second.
I guess that might appeal to some - but my suspicion is that you’ll just end up getting your money back !
Officially speaking, this is just a watching race - though I will be intrigued to see how Fusil Raffles performs, with an eye to bigger contests ahead.

3:35

I suspect that ground conditions will have a big bearing on the outcome of this race - which makes tipping in it 6 hours before the off, a slightly risky thing to do !
Certainly, if the going turns soft, I won’t be anywhere near as keen on the chances of The Young Master - though I’m hoping if that does happen, connections will withdraw him.
That’s what they’ve done the last twice he was intended to run this season: at Chepstow and Cheltenham.
On both occasions, significant pre-race rain turned the ground soft - and the horse was taken out.
Let’s hope he doesn’t get up his hatrick of non-appearances, this afternoon !
If he does make it to the start, then I think he has a very good chance.
He actually won this very race, back in 2014 ! - but subsequently lost it, because he hadn’t qualified to run in it !
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then - and The Young Master has shown himself to be a good quality chaser, more than capable of running very well in a race such as this.
It looked as if he had gone into decline, prior to last season: but a win on his seasonal debut, was followed by 3 more very good runs, which showed, that all of the ability remains.
That being the case, then he is undoubtedly well handicapped off a mark of 144 - considering he won the 2016 B365 Gold cup off a mark of 148.
It all comes down to the ground - and his fitness.
In theory today is his seasonal debut - and whilst he did win first time out 12 months ago, I still feel happier that he had a run round on the AW last month (to blow away the cobwebs).
In terms of his rivals, then White Moon is an understandable favourite - though you would have to worry about his jumping, in such a big field.
Like The Young Master, Just a Sting has a marked preference for decent ground (and a little bit to prove in terms of well being - and his ability to cope with a big field).
Whilst the issue with Give me a Copper, is whether he will be sharp enough, to cope with todays challenge.
Present Man could easily turn out to be The Young Masters biggest challenger, as he goes for a hatrick of wins in the race.
Certainly if his price drift to around 10 (not impossible on BF), then he is worth a saver.


Aintree

12:20

With Paint the Dream taken out of the race this morning, due to a bruised foot, I no longer have a particularly strong view on it.
I felt he was the ‘value’ call at 16/1 (a but like Acaru at Wincanton) - accepting that he was no certainty !
In his absence, Champagne Mystery and Present Value are the 2 who appeal most - but there is no margin in their current prices (3/1 and 9/2)

1:30

I did briefly consider getting involved with Shady Oaks in this.
In part, that is because I think the market leaders look vulnerable.
I can see the case for both The Last Day and Charmant - and whilst they are the most likely race winners (so correct favs) - neither is bomb proof.
The issue however, is finding something to take them on with - and I thought Shady Oaks might be the one.
He is very lightly raced (so open to lots of improvement) - and interestingly, is Jamie Moores only ride on the card.
If he’d run previously this season, then I would almost certainly have taken a risk.
However, his fitness is unknown - and in truth, he looks more like a 3 mile plodder, than a 2 mile speedster ! (so could take some getting fit)
If the going gets desperate, that might work to his advantage - though lack of race sharpness, won’t.
On balance, I felt there was just too much guesswork required…

2:05

This is a cracking little race - and I’m a bit disappointed that I’ve not been able to find a tip in it…
The trouble is, it’s easy to make a case for the top 6 in the betting - and once again, fitness and ground conditions are likely to be key.
To a large extent, we can only guess about both - so the attraction of getting involved, is limited…
If forced off the fence, I would side with Oldgrangewood.
He’s not run this season - but I very much doubt his fitness will be an issue.
However the ground might be, as he doesn't really want it too soft.
His chances will also be greatly improved, if the breathing op he had over the summer, has been a success.
In short, whilst I won’t be at all surprised if he runs very well (or even wins), with so many doubts/unknowns, he can’t really be a bet at 5/1.
Cepage is the other obvious one: again lack of a recent run wouldn’t be a concern; but carrying nearly 12st in heavy ground, would…
There is even more guesswork involved with Riders onthe storm and The Russian Doyen: and whilst Duke Street and War Sound are a little easier to asses, neither would be top of my pile of fancies, if all the runners perform to their best.
If it’s any help, I can’t make much of a case for the 4 longest priced runners - but that simply says to me that the market has them right !

2:40

Diomede des Mottes and Rosy World are the 2 that appeal most in this - but the market is wise (very wise !) to them.
It’s not a particularly deep contest - and I did hope that I might have been able to get 4/1 on one of them (I wouldn’t have minded which one !).
However, despite opening up around that price last night - both have been very well backed and you will now struggle to beat 5/2.
Clearly, there is no edge at that price.
I might much prefer their chances to those of the other 6 runners - but combined, they are heavily odds on to win, and I can pass on that (particularly if the ground does turn heavy).
If forced, I’d probably just favour Rosy World - but I won’t be getting financially involved with the race.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Winc 1:15 Acaro 0.5pt win 16/1
Winc 1:50 Danse Idol 1.5pt win 4/1
Winc 3:35 The Young Master 1pt win 15/2
Aint 12:20 Paint the Dream 0.5pt win 16/1 (NR)

Mentions

Aint 1:30 Shady Oaks (S )
Aint 2:05 Oldgrangewood (O )
Aint 2:40 Rosy World (P )


The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Daily write-up - Nov 3rd

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Carlisle and Huntingdon in the UK - plus Cork in Ireland.

Having the TVB season run over the same period every year, means that I have got a very good feel for the racing schedule.

I know from past seasons, that this Sunday can be a quiet one - and that’s certainly the case today.

The biggest race of the day, is the Cork National - however I can’t find anything suitable to tip in it.
The main race at Carlisle, is the Colin Parker Memorial - but it has attracted just 4 runners.
Aside from that, the best races are novice chases (one at each of the meetings) - but again, they don't really lend themselves to tips.

As a consequence, it’s a tip free day - but you still have the previews to work with - and some Mentions  (and a Back-to lay IR !), to hopefully point you in the right direction.

Here are my thoughts on the afternoons action…


Cork

2:45

This is a fascinating race - but almost unfathomable !
The main fascination, is that it’s a novice chase - yet the winner of an open handicap at the Cheltenham festival is running in it.
That’s a very unusual situation.
The horse in question is Any Second Now, and he won last seasons Kim Muir.
He’s now rated 150 - which is a high rating for a race of this nature - and he’s also only 7 years old.
Faced with those fact, you'd expect him to be a short priced favourite - yet he opened at 7/1, yesterday evening.
He’s been backed in to 4/1 this morning - and it will be interesting to see if the support continues.
There are 2 main issues with him: firstly, this is his seasonal debut; and secondly todays trip is on the short side.
It does very much look as if it’s a pipe-opener, to ready him for targets later in the season - but I suspect the market will advise…
Even ignoring him, it is still an interesting race.
Ex Patriot is another very experienced - and talented ‘novice’ (though not quite at Any Second Nows level: whilst Sayo and Dallas de Pictons are inexperienced - potentially very talented novices (of the kind you normally see in a race like this).
Trying to choose between the 4, is nearly impossible.
I suspect the market will sort them out, before the off - but unfortunately we don’t know what conclusions it will reach ! (and by the time we do, the ‘value’ will be gone).
If forced at this point in time, I’d side with Dallas de Pictons.
He won well enough on his chasing debut - and has the potential to be a graded novice (he will probably need to be, if he is to win this !).

3:20

I was hopeful that I might find something in this race, to try and follow up on Out Sams victory as a tip, last season.
He contests the race again - and from a mark just 4lb higher, he has a decent chance of repeating his success (in theory, at least).
However, he doesn’t grab me in the same way, this time.
He’s a year older - and more exposed.
Gordon Elliott has probably improved him as much as he can - I’m inclined to look elsewhere…
The trouble is, looking elsewhere leads me to the first and second favourites: Young Paddymc and Pont Avon.
Both are novices - and are unproven over todays marathon trip.
I don’t think it will be an issue for Pont Avon - as he looks a real stayer.
I’m not quite so sure about Young Paddymc - as he is a more exuberant racer (and is also making his seasonal debut).
I suspect Young Paddymc will make a decent pre-race back - to lay in-running.
But if I were to tip in the race, it would be Pont Avon.
The question in my mind is whether 6/1 is an acceptable price - about a horse with plenty to prove (in terms of jumping and stamina), taking on 16 rivals.
I came to the conclusion, that it wasn’t - I’d want at least 8/1.
If he reaches that price pre-race, I wouldn't put anyone off having a small play - but officially speaking, this is a watching race.


Carlisle

1:20

This is another decent novice handicap chase - not dissimilar to the one at Ascot yesterday, in which On the Slopes ran second.
And like the Ascot race, it’s not easy to solve…
Many of the runners have plenty of potential - and again, the market is likely to be the best indicator of the result.
That’s because most of the runners are making their seasonal debut - and not only will connection's know how fit they are, they will also know how much they have improved over the summer.
We have to guess on both scores - and that greatly lessens the appeal of getting involved.
Two for Gold is an understandable favourite - and if he stays strong in the market, I think he will take the beating.
That said, at bigger prices, Muratello and Lygon Rock have some attraction.
Both were fair hurdlers last season - and look likely to improve for the switch to fences.
Educated guesswork tells me they are not bad bets at 8/1 and 11/1 respectively - but tipping on the back of educated guesswork, doesn’t feel like the soundest of strategies !

2:30

The big race at Carlisle has only drawn 4 runners - and one of them is heavily odds on.
That makes it a bit of a non starter from a betting perspective - though it should be an interesting watch…
Lostintranslation, was close to the top of the novice tree last season - and assuming he is sufficiently fit this afternoon, he will take the beating.
He ran well enough on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and Colin Tizzard is making suitably positive noises.
He is the most likely race winner…
Kildisart is second favourite - and in theory, rated close enough to Lostintranslation to give him a race.
However, Nicky Henderson sounds less positive about his chance - and I suspect he will benefit from the run.
Count Meribel is likely to be fit and going for it - but he is rated over a stone inferior to the fav.
He does get a 6lb weight allowance - but it shouldn't really be sufficient.
I could see him running well - but Lostintranslation should have his measure.
My Old Gold is the outsider of the party - and she looks likely to be outclassed.
In summary, Lostintranslation should win - with possibly Count Meribel following him home.


Huntingdon

1:45

This is a surprisingly good novice chase (helped no doubt, by the fact that the ground at Huntingdon, is better than can currently be found at most other courses in the country)
In fact, I spent a little time, considering whether to tip in it…
The horse I am most interested in, is Cotswold Way - and at double figures, I think he is too big a price.
He’s making his seasonal debut - and running for the first time over fences - but neither of those things put me off him.
He won on his seasonal debut at Huntingdon last year - and the 2m4f trip on decent ground, is perfect for him.
On hurdle ratings, he is just about the best horse in the race - and yet he can be backed a 11/1.
It almost doesn’t make sense - until you see the jockey bookings…
Richard Johnson is stable jockey for Philip Hobbs (the trainer of Cotswold Way) - yet he is riding Whatmore in the race for Henry Daly.
There is no issue with regard to riding weights - so you have to read it as a vote of no confidence in the horse.
Certainly that is how the market has read it - and with some force !.
In fairness, Michael Nolan has ridden the horse numerous times before - including for 3 wins.
Dickie has only ridden it twice - and hasn’t been successful.
It’s a tough one: part of me think, ignore the jockey - and go with the form book: but another part of me thinks - Dickie doesn’t give up winners lightly !
I guess the fact he is riding Whatmore should be viewed as a positive for that one (particularly as it’s his only ride of the day).
He a quirky sort - and Dickie has won 3 times on him (from 5 goes).
I certainly wouldn’t rule him out - and ultimately, that’s the issue.
Not only could I not rule out Whatmore, I couldn’t rule out quite a few others (with Pym and Third Wind, top of the list).
Cotswold Way is arguably a ‘value’ bet - but it’ll certainly be no easy task for him to to win.


Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.




Mentions

Cork 2:45 Dallas du Pictons (O )
Cork 3:20 Pont Aven (P )
Carl 1:20 Muratello & Lygon Rock (S )
Hunt 1:45 Cotswold Way (O )


The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions


*Back-to lay IR

Cork 3:20 Young Paddymc


*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race

Review of the day

Never let it be said that there is a dull day with TVB :)

As the guys who have been on the the service for many years, already know - the outrageous swings of fortune, seem to take particular pleasure, from giving TVB subscribers a ride to remember !

However, even by those standards, todays events bordered on the unbelievable…

The drama happened in the 2 mile chase at Ascot.

Diego du Charmil cruised through the contest - taking full advantage of the frenetic early pace (as I thought he would).
As the race leader faltered, on the approach to the second last, he strode on - but was then immediately challenged by stablemate, Capeland.

Coming down to the last it was nip and tuck between the two - but then Diego veered to his left in an attempt to run out.

In an incredible demonstration of good fortune, he was prevented from doing so, by Capeland - who less luckily, was forced round the fence.

Diego couldn't quite manage to do that himself - so had to jumped through the edge of it !

Somehow, not only did he manage that - his jockey stayed in the saddle- and then galvanised him back into the lead, just before the line !

There then followed the longest stewards enquiry, I can ever recall - and I can only imagine how the stewards decided on an appropriate course of action.

I suspect it all boiled down to whether Diego had actually jumped the final fence - and thankfully, they came to the conclusion that he had - just about !

As a consequence, the TVB season got under way with a winner: an incredibly lucky one - who would have been an incredibly unlucky, if he had lost !

Now, try and make head or tail of that !!

The season had nearly got off to a perfect start, in the previous race at Ascot.

Cervaro Mix lost his chance with a bad early mistake - but On the Slopes appeared the most likely race winner, on the run to the second last (he traded odds on in running).

However, Doctor Dex then appeared on the scene - and he quickened away from him, after jumping the penultimate fence.

It was a good run from On the Slopes - but not quite good enough…

Adjali also put in a good run in the 2 mile handicap chase - but he was no match for the re-invigorated Gumball.

As is so often the case, the winner was backed as if someone knew - and whilst he was tiring close home, he never looked like losing.

Adjali meanwhile, plugged on for a fair sixth place.

In absolute terms it wasn’t a bad run, for a seasonal debut - but I was a bit disappointed he couldn’t do better…

Relentless Dreamer was the final tip to run at Ascot - but a significant early mistake cost him his chance and he was pulled up (which is why I tend not to tip them EW !).

The race was won by one of the nominated dangers: Vindication - though whether anyone not in the know, would have been prepared to back him at 2/1, in such a competitive race, is a different matter.

Flashjack was the only other tip on the day - and he ran an honest race at Ayr.

He was a late market drifter - but I felt he still had every chance, turning in.

However, Justatenner went past him on the run to the second last - and while he briefly threaten to rally, he couldn’t get back at the winner.

With a couple of pounds off his mark - he’s one to be on in heavy ground, next time…

As for the Mentions:

Indefatigable was no match for the classy Lady Buttons, at Wetherby - with the winner looking as good as ever.
Ballyandy didn’t handle the step up in trip in the stayers hurdle, allowing the The Worlds End to make all (I had expected him to struggle in the soft ground).
And whilst Molly the Dolly was still going very nicely when she crashed out at the sixth last, I don't honestly think she would have beaten Ballyoptic.
The race turned into a war - and he had fitness and stamina on his side.

Finally, over at Down Royal, Road to Respect won the grade 1 contest for the second year in the succession, getting the better of Clan des Obeaux.
The runner up performed very well however, and is unlikely to relinquish his King George crown without a fight.

All in all, an interesting first day of the new season !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 2nd

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wetherby, Ascot, Ayr and Down Royal.

It’s great to finally get the new TVB season properly under-way (not least, because it means I’m almost finished with the service admin !)

The pre-season went well (as tends to be the case !) - and I’m sure that those of you who go involved with it, can’t wait to ramp things up further, and invest your profits :)

Certainly, there is no faulting todays cards - or the races - I just wish the weather would play ball…

There is nothing I dread more (in the world of tipping !), than rain on a Friday evening/Saturday morning.
We saw last weekend at Cheltenham, how it can completely change things - so I was really disappointed to see that rain was forecast for all 4 of todays venues.

The issue is simply, that you don’t know how much there will be - or what impact it will have on the ground
And in racing, the state of the surface, is of paramount importance…

Still, it is what it is. No one ever forces us to bet !

I’ve done my best to assess (predict) conditions - and figured it was worth risking pulling the trigger on a few selections.

Hopefully I will have read/guessed things right !

I have edge on the side of caution, with regard to staking (first day - and uncertain weather).
I’ll look to ramp things up, once we are fully into the swing of things (and by then, hopefully the weather will also have stabilised !).

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble.
I’ve ended up with 6 tips on the day, spread across 5 races.

Here’s the rationale for them - along with my thoughts on the days other big races…


Ascot

1:35

This is a really fascinating novice chase - though not easy to call…
Virtually all of the runners can be given a chance - but there were 4 that particularly interested me.
Jammy George and Cervaro Mix are both owned by Andrew Brook - and his company sponsors the race (co-incidence..?!).
It’s tricky to choose between the pair, but the latter is easier to assess - and has also had a run this season.
That was at Fontwell, 4 weeks ago, when he was sent off a short priced fav for a handicap chase.
He travelled exuberantly that day (suggesting he would improve for the run) - but was still in with a chance, until he made a bad blunder, late on.
That sealed his fate - but it was still fair comeback effort.
If he builds on it, as I expect, then he should go close this afternoon.
The other 2 of major interest, are Diable de Sivola and On the Slopes.
The former makes his debut for Gary Moore, having transferred from Nick Williams during the summer.
If he’s improved for the move, then he should go close.
Despite that, I prefer the chance of On the Slopes.
Like Cervaro Mix, he’s already had a run this season, performing very creditably in a decent novice chase at Uttoxeter.
He was up against higher rated rivals that day - but travelled and jumped very well, just getting run out of things, close home.
Again, I would expect him to come on for the run - and I hope his sound jumping will prove an asset around Ascot (without wishing to tempt fate!).
It’s not a race to be going mad with (because there are so many unknowns) - but at the early odds, splitting a point across Cervaro Mix and On The Slopes, seemed the best way to play things.

2:10

I like the look of Diego du Charmil in this.
He makes his seasonal debut this afternoon - and I would usually consider that a negative - but not with him…
He’s a horse who is best fresh - as his record of 3 wins from 4, on his seasonal debut, testifies (particularly as one of those wins, was at the Cheltenham festival !).
The one blip on his debut record, occurred last season.
He was sent off a well backed favourite for the Halden Gold cup - but finished last.
However, he was struck into during that race - which I think is a fair excuse for an under-performance !
Superficially, the rest of last seasons campaign also looks disappointing - as he finished well beaten in his other 3 races.
However, on each occasion, he bumped into the mighty Alitior.
Safe to say, he will meet no rival of that ones ability this afternoon !
As a result of his efforts last season, Diego du Charmil starts this campaign on a mark 7lb lower.
Add in the 3lb claim of jockey Lorcan Williams and you have a horse running from a mark, where he can do damage.
The other thing that attracts me to him today, is that I can see the race being set up perfectly.
He’s a horse who likes to be dropped in - and with a glut of front runners in opposition, that could be the perfect tactic…
Of his opponents, then the second season novice, Clondaw Castle, is the one I fear most.
He has plenty of scope off a mark of 144.
However, he’s also making his seasonal debut - and his record fresh is mixed.
Furthermore, there is minimal margin in a best price of 9/2 (and I’d be concerned if the price drifted).

2:45

As regular readers will know, I’m not in the habit of tipping favourites in big field handicaps - however, I’m prepared to make an exception with Adjali…
This doesn’t look a particularly strong race.
I’ve nothing against Lisp - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well - but the fact he was installed second fav for the race, tells me that the bar is not being set overly high.
He’s a decent enough animal - but unless he’s improved markedly over the summer, then he should be beatable, off his current mark.
Adjali, on the other hand, could be significantly better than his current rating - and that makes him attractive.
He’s only a 4 year old - but he ran a number of creditable races in his juvenile season - and was campaigned like a very good horse (he was quietly fancied in the Triumph hurdle).
As he’s a French import, there is a good chance that he will have improved during his first summer in England, and if that is the case, he could laugh at todays rival, off a mark of 141.
Didtheyleaveyououtto is the obvious one to fear - but he’s very inconsistent (and it may be significant that Barry Geraghty hasn’t come over to ride him); whilst of the outsiders, Sparkelandshine catches my eye, on his second run for Harry Whittington, having run creditably in the corresponding race, 12 months ago. He could be worth a tiny saver, at big odds.

3:20

In all probability, one of the second season novices will win this.
Vindication, On the Blind Side, Mister Malarkey, Larry and Springtown Lake, dominate the betting - and that is perfectly understandable.
They all have significant scope for improvement - particularly the first 2 named, who are making their handicap debuts.
That said, the market is clearly wise to them - and there is a world of difference between winning small field novice events - and winning big field handicaps.
In the circumstances, I’m more inclined to take a risk on Relentless Dreamer.
He doesn’t lack for big field handicap experience, in fact he was a winning selection in a 16 runner handicap at Cheltenham, during the pre-season 12 months ago.
He has only raced once since then - at the beginning of last month, when he finished third to Balyoptic at Chepstow (another winning pre-season selection :) ).
Somewhat surprisingly, Relentless Dreamer gets to run today, from a mark just 3lb higher than the one he was successful from at Cheltenham.
That gives him a real chance of recording another victory.
In truth, he would possibly be better as an EW selection (considering the nature of the opposition) - but I’m never keen on that path (particularly in chases).
I will try and save stakes, with small bets on Vindication and On the Blind side - but officially speaking, all the eggs are in the Relentless Dreamer basket !


Wetherby

1:55

I had earmarked Indefatigable as a tip in this, when she opened up at 9/2 yesterday evening.
However, she has come in for sustained support since then - and as I look now, she is just 2/1 !
I can understand that to an extent.
This looks a 4 horse race: and whilst Vision du Puy and Zambella have plenty of potential - they also have plenty to prove.
Indefatigable has nothing to prove - including her fitness - an advantage she holds over likely chief rival, Lady Buttons.
There was only a neck between the pair when they met at Doncaster last season - and with a fitness edge, it is quite reasonable to think that Indefatigable will be able to reverse the form today.
However, I do think that 2 miles suits Lady Buttons better than Indefatigable - and I also think that the Doncaster run may have slightly flattered the latter.
Whatever, I doubt there will be much between the pair this afternoon - and whilst I would expect them to both beat their unexposed rivals (plus the other runners in the race), that’s not absolutely guaranteed.
In the circumstances, I can’t see any angle into the race, from a betting perspective.

3:05

I would have been very tempted to tip Ballyandy in this, if he’d been available at 2/1 or bigger this morning.
I accept that his stamina is unproven - and that is a slight concern - but simply, none of his rivals look capable of winning…
Unowhatimeanharry was the original race favourite - but he’s pushing 12, won’t relish heavy ground and is unlikely to be spot on for his seasonal debut.
It’s a very similar story with The Worlds End (apart from the age bit !); whilst the other 4 runners just don’t look good enough.
In short, I expect Ballyandy to win by default…
I guess there’s a chance that Le Breuil or Lord Napier (or even UnowhatImeanharry ) will be tuned to run for their lives: or alternatively, there’s a chance that Ballyandys stamina won’t last out.
I think both are unlikely though - which would have made Ballyandy a very tempting proposition at 2/1.
I’d even consider getting involved with him, if he drifted - though if it were in the face of strong opposition for one of the 3 named, I’d be a little less keen.

3:40

The prospect of heavy ground and a potential pace war, make this a hard race to call.
There has been a fair bit of rain at Wetherby over the past few days - and the ground already looked soft, by the end of racing yesterday.
If there is any more rain pre-race, this may well end up a slog.
That, coupled with the fact that at least 3 of the runners could try to lead, means there is just too much uncertainty, to risk getting involved.
So much will depend on conditions; tactics and fitness (all relatively unknown) - form could be incidental.
Ballyoptic, Top Ville Ben and Le Bague au Roi, could all try to lead.
That would be likely to turn it into a stamina test, which would suit Elegant Escape and Definitly Red.
However the former may need the run; whilst the later has to concede weight to his rivals (and all things being equal, he shouldn’t really be good enough to do that).
Bizarrely, if the rain hadn’t come, I would have been quite keen on Molly the Dolly.
She gets a lot of weight from all of her rivals (almost a stone from Definitly Red) - and I’ve no doubt that Dan Skelton will have her primed to the minute.
However, she doesn’t want soft ground (never mind heavy) - so that is likely to prove her undoing…
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race - though if condition's turn out  not to be as bad as I expect, then I’ll certainly be having a small play on Molly.


Down Royal

2:25

The big race of the day in Ireland, is a fascinating contest - but not easy to call.
There may only be 5 runners - but it’s hard to split the 3 at the head of the betting - and fitness is likely to prove crucial.
Non of the 3 have run previously this season, so there is too much guesswork involved to justify a strong view.
My inclination would be to oppose favourite, Delta Work, on his first run outside novice company.
I’ve no doubt he is a very talented animal - but he is taking on a couple of proven grade 1 performers in Clan des Obeaux and Road to Respect - and consequently it is hard to justify a price of 6/4.
Ignoring price, then I think Clan des Obeaux is the most likely winner.
He won last years King George - and I suspect Paul Nichols will have him pretty straight for today.
That said, he can only represent minimal value at 2/1, against Delta Work and last years winner, Road to Respect (and that’s ignoring the other 2 runners).


Ayr

2:15

Depending on how you choose to view it, Flashjack is either a great bet in this - or a questionable one !
On the downside, he’s a 9 year old, making his seasonal debut.
He finished well beaten on his latest run (back in March), when he broke a blood vessel.
Yet, despite all that, he is running off a career high mark today…
On the flip side:
He has a very good record fresh and absolutely loves heavy ground.
He has been sent hundreds of miles, by bang in form trainer Henry Daly; and is ridden by an excellent claimer in Richard Patrick (he is the only runner on the card, for both of them).
Furthermore, the apposition he faces today looks distinctly limited - headed by the winner of last years Scottish Grand National, Takingrisks.
The deciding factor for me, was the price.
I expected him to be just about favourite for this race (even accepting the negatives) - yet he can be backed at 5/1.
In a 5 horse race, that is definitely worth a risk…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips

Ascot 1:35 Cervaro Mix 0.5pt win 9/1
Ascot 1:35 On The Slopes 0.5pt win 8/1
Ascot 2:10 Diego du Charmil 1pt win 9/1
Ascot 2:45 Adjali 1pt win 5/1
Ascot 3:20 Relentless Dreamer 0.5pt win 14/1
Ayr 2:15 Flashjack 1pt win 5/1

Mentions

Weth 1:55 Indefatigable (P )
Weth 3:05 Ballyandy (P )
Weth 3:40 Molly the Dolly (C )
DR 2:25 Clan des Obeaux (P )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions