It was nice to have a few days off, following the manic Christmas/New Year period.
It’s also nice to be back in action today - a win:win situation :)
More than that, I was pleasantly surprised by how well todays fields have stood up at both Kempton and Warwick - and there has been no overnight rain !
On the flip side however, most of the races look fiercely competitive, and finding an angle isn’t easy.
Also, there will be some guesswork required with regard to precisely how much the drying ground, has dried up !
More than that, the early markets were incredibly fragile...
It feels as if it’s getting harder and harder to tip early, as the slightest whiff of support for anything, sees the price crash.
It feels like an area that I am going to have to look at.
Anyway, that’s for another day: for today, I’ve got 4 tips - 2 issued early and 2 late.
Making the calls was not easy - so let’s hope I’ve got them right !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the days other big races.
Kempton
2:05
The defection of Altior, has robbed this race of much of its interest.
He was originally planned to run, but Nicky Henderson wasn’t completely happy with him in the middle of the week.
That was interpreted as him being a NR - and he was removed from the betting.
The BHB got involved - and Henderson then said he wanted to run the horse !
However the damage had been done and he was scratched from the race.
All a bit of a farce !
In his absence, his stablemate Top Notch, looks the most likely winner - though it’s debatable whether he warrants being so short in the betting.
Officially, he is rated 7lb inferior to Frodon - and that one should be well suited by todays test.
However, he’s not found his form this season - hence the lack of market interest.
If Frodon is on his ‘A’ game, he should win - but I suspect he is being trained to peak at Cheltenham.
Even if that is the case, Top Notch is not guaranteed to beat Kauto Riko.
There was less than a length between them last time at Huntingdon, and on 2lb better terms, Kauto Riko should take his revenge.
I don’t think he will - but I’m not prepared to bet on it.
In short, whilst theoretical arguments can be made against Top Notch - and he is undoubtedly too short a price, I think he will find a way to win…
2:40
This doesn’t look the best ever renewal of the Lanzarote hurdle - and I think it is worth taking a risk on Echiquier.
Ex. French, he hacked up on his UK debut in a small novice hurdle at Hexham in October - and was then pitched in to the grade 2 Persian war hurdle at Chepstow.
The fact connections were prepared to aim him so high, on his second outing, suggests his is well thought of - and whilst he could only finish fifth, time has shown that it was a particularly strong renewal.
Thyme Hill won the race, with Fiddleronthehoof, second.
They have each won a grade 1 novice event over the past couple of weeks and are now close to the top of the market for novice events at the Cheltenham festival.
On his next run, Echiqiuer contested a very strong handicap hurdle at Haydock.
Again, he finished out of the money (this time, in sixth place) - but he ran really well, until his stamina let him down in the last half mile.
Dropped half a mile in trip - and back in novice company - he was well fancied for his next run at Southwell.
However, he didn’t perform that day and was well beaten.
He was badly hampered at one point in the race and that could have contributed to his defeat - though it is more likely that he simply didn’t handle the heavy ground.
We have to be prepared to forgive him that run - but at a decent price and on better ground, I think he is worth a risk today.
Certainly, he doesn’t look badly handicapped now, on a mark 6lb lower than he started the season on - and I suspect he will get his ideal conditions…
Unsurprisingly, in a race of this nature, plenty of others can be given a chance - though I think Notre Pari is far too short a price - and wouldn’t consider Burrows Edge, for the same reason.
Debestyman is of some interest - but not as much as Dan Skeltons 2 runners: Northofthe wall and Gortroe Joe. In fact, I was quite tempted to split stakes on the last named - and he is certainly worth a saver (unofficially !).
The other one that catches my eye at a huge price, is Vinnie Dev - and he too may be worth a small unofficial saver.
3:15
I like Walt best in this, but I can’t quite bring myself to tip him at 5/1…
He’s an enigmatic character - who given the right conditions, is quite capable of winning a race of this nature.
In all probability, he will get his conditions this afternoon - 3 miles, a flat track and decent ground - so he should run his race.
That said, if the ground is riding tacky, it won’t suit him - and he does face at least a couple of dangerous looking opponents.
Chief amongst them is On the Blind Side.
He could be a class better than his rivals - and whilst he’s had issues with his jumping, todays small field should help.
King of the Realms is another of interest; whilst War Sound is handicapped to win - if recapturing his form and staying the 3 mile trip.
The final one of interest, is Fingerontheswitch.
He’s a stablemate of Walt - and like him, has a marked preference for decent ground.
He may not be quite up to this class - but he will feel like he’s running loose, with just 9st8lb on his back (including his jockeys allowance).
On balance, I feel it’s a race best watched…
Warwick
1:50
I want to take a chance on Hold the Note in this.
I tipped him on his most recent outing, in a handicap chase at Kempton on Boxing day.
He was really unlucky that day, as he was stopped in his tracks, when Roll Again fell in front of him.
It was too far out to say whether he would have won - but he was still going very nicely and it’s not hard to think he would have been involved in the finish.
Hold the Note is rated just 133 - and you wouldn’t expect that to be high enough to take a grade 2 event.
However, this looks a weak renewal - with the highest rated only 142. Furthermore, if Hold the Note had won at Kempton (or even gone close), he would be rated around 140 himself…
Of his opponents, then favourite Highest Sun looks the most dangerous.
That said, he too ran (and got beaten !) in a handicap on his penultimate outing - and his profile looks very similar to that of Hold the Note.
The same is true of Two for Gold: whilst Ardlethen has had his limitations exposed.
Roll Again is once again in opposition - but the big worry with him is his jumping (Warwick is a tricky track to jump round).
Hold the Note is no certainty, that's for sure. However, in an open race, he looks to have as good a chance as all of his rivals - and represents a bit of value at around 8/1.
2:25
This looks a really open race and it was my intention last night, to take a chance on Keen On.
He was a 7/1 shot then - and I felt that under-estimated his chance.
However, he has been very well backed this morning - and his current price of 4/1, strikes me as a bit too short (accepting that there is a fair amount of guesswork involved).
By contrast, Decor Irlandais, opened at 3/1 last night - which I felt was too short.
However, he has drifted to 7/1 this morning, which strikes me as a price worth taking a risk at !
In terms of the case for Decor Irlandais, then he is rated at least 10lb superior to all of his rivals (which probably explains why he opened up so short in the betting).
In truth, that rating does look a little suspect - but he’s only run 5 times over hurdles, so it’s hard to get a proper handle on him.
Certainly he was massively impressive when cutting down and cantering all over Mercian Prince, last time at Catterick.
Again, it’s hard to be sure what that form amounts to - but he gave 9lb to a 138 rated chaser and beat him 2 lengths, hard held.
At face value, that sets a decent standard for the race…
It is possible that one or two of his rivals may be able to surpass it - but non of them are guaranteed to do so.
All of the other runners have plenty of scope for improvement - but if Decor Irlandais repeats the form of Catterick, they will need to run to a mark in excess of 150, to beat him.
That might happen - but it might not - and at odds of 7/1, I think it is worth taking a risk that it won’t…
3:00
I’m struggling to see beyond the top 2 in the market for this: The Conditional and Kimberlite Candy - but equally, I’m also struggling to see any value in respective prices of 7/2 and 5/1, in a 14 runner handicap.
Of the pair, I slightly favour Kimberlite Candy - but mainly because I think todays extreme test will suit him best.
He’s a proven stayer, so the 3m5f trip will be no problem to him.
He also contests the race on the back of a really good run in the Becher chase - and with connections knowing that he needs to win this race, if he is to have any chance of competing in the Grand National (which you have to think is the ultimate aim).
At 6/1, I would probably have taken a chance on him - but 5/1 is a bit too short…
The Conditional is a different beast in so much as he’s not guaranteed to stay the trip - but if he does, he will probably win.
He ran a mighty race last time out in the Ladbroke trophy when finishing second - and even off a 5lb higher mark today, doesn’t look badly handicapped.
My main issue with him is that he travelled so well in that race, I wonder whether he will stay todays marathon trip.
At a price, he would undoubtedly be worth a risk - but 7/2 is too short…
Of the others, then Le Breuil has a theoretical chance - however, a win for him (and the subsequent rise in the handicap) would probably scupper his Grand National chances - and I suspect his season is being geared around that race…
Aside from those 3, it is hard to make a concrete case for anything - whilst accepting that in a race of this nature, most of the runners have a chance, if at the top of their game.
3:15
This looks an impossible puzzle to solve…
It’s a qualifier for the Pertemps series - the final is run at the Cheltenham festival - and they are notoriously difficult races to solve.
The issue is that any horse that finishes in the first 6 of a qualifier, can run in the final.
Often, that’s the sole objective of connections.
Furthermore, a number of them will only want to finish sixth ! - as that’s highly unlikely to result in a ratings rise, which might negatively affect their chance of winning the final.
That said, in order to run in the final, a rating of around 134 tends to be needed.
So horses rated below that mark, will be trying to win (or at least get placed), so that their rating is raised, thereby increasing their chance of getting a run in the final.
Suffice to say, the sub-plots can be a little distracting !
Bearing in mind the above, the race is most likely to be won by Tedham - or one of the horses below him in the handicap.
Whilst those above him, will ideally be looking to place 4th, 5th _ or 6th !
In terms of the most likely race winner, then the ‘short’ list consists of Tedham, Igor, SIlver Sheen, Doc Pentro and One for the Team (plus possibly Its all Guesswork).
The trouble is, they occupy most of the places at the head of the betting.
I can’t see a strong angle for any of the 6 main contenders.
Jessie Harrington bringing over Silver Sheen, strikes me as unusual - though whether he will be good enough to win, is a different matter.
One for the Team is a worthy favourite, based on form - but no value.
Igor is the value option - but may not quite be good enough.
Doc Pentro is possibly the most interesting - with Ben Jones travelling up from Kempton to ride.
If I were to have a bet in the race, it would probably be on him - but the contest is too much of a minefield, to tip in…
Fairyhouse
2:10
This is a rare beast in Ireland, in that it’s a very valuable chase, run over 2 miles (2m1f to be precise !).
The vast majority of the valuable chases run in Ireland are over 3 miles - or further.
Maybe not surprisingly, there is invariably a shortage of decent 2 mile chasers, so races such as this, don't tend to take quite as much winning.
I tipped R’evelyn Pleasure last season, when he ran in the Red Rum chase at the Aintree Grand National meeting.
He ran poorly that day - and for no obvious reason - but these things happen, particularly when horses have travelled a long way.
His two subsequent runs last season, suggested that his Aintree run was a one off - and he very much caught my eye on his seasonal debut, 11 days ago.
That was in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown, when he travelled really well and looked like winning, turning in.
Ultimately, he was run out of things close home - but you couldn’t have asked for a better return to action.
I suspect that outing was designed to set him up for this race - and it showed he is in very good form.
He’s still only 8, so there is also every chance that he is still improving - and the experiences he gained last season, should stand him in good stead this afternoon.
Of his rivals, then plenty can be given chances - but nothing really stands out.
In fact, the one I find most interesting, is Vaniteux.
He has been sent over from England by Sophie Leach - which is an unusual move.
Like R’Evelyn Pleasure, he is a few pounds out of the handicap - but I doubt that will make much difference.
He can be backed at 33/1 - and is worth an unofficial saver at that price.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 2:40 Echiquier 0.5pt win 14/1
War 1:50 Hold the Note 0.75pt win 8/1
War 2:25 Decor Irlandais 0.75pt win 7/1
Fairy 2:10 R'Evelyn Pleasure 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 2:05 Top Notch (P )
Kemp 3:15 Walt (O )
War 3:00 Kimberlite Candy (O )
War 3:35 Doc Penfro (O ))
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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