As you are all aware, TVB focuses on ‘big races’ - and whilst there is some reasonable action at both Wetherby and Fakenham (for a midweek), non of the races could be described as ‘big’.
That’s not the case at Gowran however, where the 66th running of the Thyestes chase takes place.
The race has some history: having been won by both Arkle and Flybolt - the 2 highest ever rated horses, in the history of jump racing.
It was also won by Jadanli in 2013 - one of the greatest ever TVB tips :)
I also managed to tip the race winner last year, so It’s certainly a race that’s close to my heart...
I have spent a lot of time turning over todays race - and whilst I’m not confident that I’ve managed to find the winner, I am hopeful.
Certainly, I feel that I’ve latched on to a couple of horses who have a good chance - and ultimately you can’t do much more than that.
I’ve also previewed a couple of the other main races on the card.
Here are my thoughts…
Gowran Park
1:50
The market suggests that this is a 2 horse race between Benie des Dieux and Apples Jade - and the ratings pretty much agree.
It’s unusual for a mare to be the top rated horse in an open race - but the pair of them are rated 157, which is 2lb above Penhill.
In truth, it’s hard to argue, with either the ratings - or the betting...
Last time out, Apples Jade finished 20 lengths ahead of Penhill, when the pair clashed at Leopardstown over Christmas. And whilst the latter gets a 7lb pull in the weights today, that really shouldn’t be sufficient to reverse the form.
Ofcourse, there is a chance that Apples Jade won’t repeat that performance - she had been struggling for form, prior to the race; whilst Penhill could also improve for his second run of the season - but on balance, the result really should be the same.
However, even if Apples Jade does again get the better of Penhill, Benie des Dieux could be a different matter…
The 2 mares clashed twice in 2017 - when Apples Jade was at the peak of her powers - and on both occasions, Benie came out of top.
In Fact, Benie is unbeaten in 8 starts for Willie Mullins - when she has stood up.
Her only defeat came when she fell at the final flight, in last seasons mares hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
If she had stood up that day, she would have won, so she clearly sets the standard.
The only issue with her, is that she will be making her seasonal debut this afternoon.
In an ‘ordinary’ race that wouldn’t be an issue - but she will need to be close to her peak, if she is to beat Apples Jade.
Ultimately, this is likely to come down to how fit Benie des Dieux is.
Her main target is the mares hurdle at Cheltenham, so I would expect Willie Mullins to have left something to work on.
She still might be good enough to beat Apples Jade (as she is probably in slight decline) - but there is no appeal in backing her at odds on, with a question mark over her fitness.
2:25
I tipped R’Evelyn Pleasure, when he disappointed at Fairyhouse earlier this month.
That was in a good quality handicap chase - and he was very well supported in the market that day.
However, his jumping was shoddy: he was soon on the back foot and never really sighted with a chance.
I was keen on him that day, because he had caught my eye 10 days earlier when making his seasonal debut at Punchestown.
That was over hurdles - and he looked likely to win turning in, until a lack of fitness seemed to find him out.
He’s back over hurdles today - and racing from a mark 17lb lower than the one he ran from last time.
His run at Punchestown showed he can be competitive off his hurdles mark - so it’s really just whether there is something better handicapped in the race…
Unfortunately, it’s hard to know whether that's the case, as he is up against a number of potential improvers.
Eleazar des Neiges is an obvious danger - with Impatient Partner, another.
And whilst Abraham and Jukebox Jive aren’t quite as unexposed, both are also open to improvement.
I would certainly expect R’Evelyn Pleasure to run well - and he could easily be placed - however, he is vulnerable from a win perspective which means odds of 6/1 have limited appeal.
3:00
It’s quite incredible, that of the 18 runners in todays field, a third are trained by Willie Mullins: a third by Gordon Elliott - and a third by ‘others’.
Such is the balance of power nowadays, in Irish NH racing…
Ofcourse, the ‘scatter gun’ approach of the big 2, makes it much harder to figure out what’s going on: which of their runners are fancied - and which are just making up the numbers…
Jockey Bookings can help - but even they can’t always be taken at face value.
It certainly makes solving the puzzle quite tricky !
All this said, with a straight bat, I make Acapella Bourgeois just about the most likely winner of todays race.
Furthermore, the booking of Paul Townend suggests that he is Willies number 1 - and for that reason alone, he has to be respected.
In his younger days, Acapella was trained by Sandra Hughes and threatened to be absolutely top class.
The expectation was that when he transferred to WIllie Mullins, his career would take off - but that’s not really happened.
He’s clearly had a few issues over the past couple of season, but a third in last years Irish National, showed what he is capable of - and I thought there was a lot to like about his seasonal reappearance behind Al Book Photo at Tramore.
He appeared to at least run to his current rating of 152, that day - and as most of Willies have improved for the run, I suspect he could be capable of running to around 160 this afternoon.
If he does that, then he will go very close (you tend to need at least 7lb ion hand of your mark, to win these kind of races).
The other one that really interests me, is Moyhenna.
She is trained by Denis Hogan and showed herself a very talented mare, when wining twice last spring.
On the first occasion, she hacked up in a novice chase at Limerick - and she then followed that up by winning a competitive handicap at the Punchestown festival.
That was off a mark of 132 - and she races from a mark of 142 this afternoon.
However, she ran off the latter rating at Limerick on her latest start at Christmas, and was just about to make her challenge, when falling at the third last.
It was too far out to say whether she would have won - but it did demonstrate that she could be competitive off her current rating.
I’m hopeful that she will improve for todays step up in trip - and whilst it’s not ideal that she is racing today on the back of a fall, she did the same thing last season, prior to her first win.
In a race of this nature, there are obviously plenty who can be given a chance.
I’d probably be most fearful of the novices: Smoking Gun, Lord Schnitzel and Choungaya, as all have significant scope for improvement - equally however, they all have sizeable question marks against them.
Stamina is the worry for Ex Patriot: whilst Chef des Obeaux just looks a bit short in the market (accepting he has a chance).
In summary, I’m happy splitting stakes across Acapella Bourgeois and Moyhenna - and hopefully one of them will come home in front.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
GowP 3:00 Acapella Bourgeois 0.5pt win 11/2
GowP 3:00 Moyhenna 0.5pt win 11/1
Mentions
GowP 2:25 R'Evelyn Pleasure (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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