It’s fair to say that it’s a busy old day !
Cheltenham obviously host the feature meeting of the day (when do they not ?!); but most of the supporting cards, contain something of interest…
Musselburgh, in particular, host a couple of very decent races - both of which will be covered by terrestrial TV; whilst the Gold Cup winner, Al Boom Photo, reappears at Tramore (as he did last season).
There's also a very interesting eye catcher, running at Fakenham.
I managed to tip Black Buble last time, when he ran well at Newbury - and I would have liked to tip him again today.
However, it's a weak market - and he’s been well backed this morning.
At 6/1, in a 12 horse race, where cases can be made for a few, I just can’t see any value...
I did manage to tip a couple in the big handicap at Cheltenham, however - along with one at Musselburgh.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on most of the days other big races…
Cheltenham
12:15
I don’t really get why Redford Road is such a short price for this.
Granted, he was a good winner at the December meeting - but that was over 3 miles and on soft ground.
His stamina won him the race that day - and over half a mile less, on faster ground, that’s not going to be happening today.
I guess there’s a chance that he could outclass is rivals - but I think that unlikely…
The problem is figuring out what to take him on with.
I could give most of his opponents a chance - but would struggle to make a solid case for any of them.
The betting suggests that Welsh Saint should be the one - but that is primarily down to connections and the fact that Nico de Boinville has opted for him ahead of Nicky Henderson’s other runner (Grand Mogul).
If forced off the fence, I would go with the Dan Skelton trained Protektorat.
He steps out of handicap company - and up half a mile in trip: but I think the extra distance will suit - and he may be a better horse for the experience of running in a handicap.
It’s hard to know what price represents ‘value’ - but 5/1 in a 6 horse race seems fair enough…
12:50
When I first looked at this race, I was pretty sure it was between Cogry and Singlefarmpayment - but I’m not quite so sure now !
They’ve had numerous battles in the past - and invariably, Cogry comes out on top.
That was the case when they met last month - and whilst Singlefarmpayment is 4lb better off today, for a 3 length beating - that probably won’t make much difference.
What might make a difference to Singlefarmpayment, is the application of first time cheek pieces - and quicker ground - but then again…!
Certainly, if they can get his head right - in perfect conditions - Singlefarmpayment will win this. The question is whether cheek pieces will be able to do that…
At a price, he would be worth a risk - and I see no way that he will be out of the 3 - I’m just not prepared to risk him, at less than 5/1…
The issue with Cogry, is that everything went perfectly for him last time - and that may not happen today.
He is also 4lb higher in the weights - and won’t hugely appreciate drying ground.
He has the heart of a lion, so is still likely to be hard to beat - but he has to be vulnerable…
If my initial assessment was wrong and this isn’t a 2 horse race, then I have to find one to oppose them with…
In truth, nothing appeals massively - though Commodore looks quite interesting, assuming he copes with the ground.
1:25
Though it disappoints me a little, I’m struggling to see beyond Champ in this.
He overcame significant adversity to win at Newbury last time - and that’s invariably the sign of a good horse.
Purely on the weights, there should be little between him and Deyrann de Carjac today - as the latter is 5lb better off for a 6lb beating.
Furthermore, Deyrann will be well suited by the drying ground,
However, I really don’t think he will be suited by the Cheltenham hill - and I expect Champ to power past him, after the last.
Deyarann could be worth an in-running trade (as he jumps and travels really well) - but I can’t see him coming home in front.
If Champ is to be bustled up, it is more likely to be by Midnight Shadow.
According to the book, he should have Champs measure - but I don’t think that will be the case.
I could see him running very well though - and probably finishing second.
Assuming he jumps round cleanly - and doesn’t befall any ill luck - then I expect Champ to win.
2:00
This is a cracking race - and I think it’s worth taking 2 against the field…
The first is Ex Patriot.
I have to be honest, I expected him to go under the radar - but that’s certainly not been the case !
I’m not sure what has caught people’s attention - though I suspect he may drift close to the off…
Anyway, what caught my eye, is the fact that he’s trained by Ellmarie Holding and ridden by Derek O’Connor.
Regular readers will know the esteem in which I hold Mr O’Connor - but I’m also a massive fan of the trainer.
She’s only has a small string - but she is more than capable of getting the best out of them.
Ex Patriot is her best horse - and he has some good form.
Certainly, his last time out third to subsequent grade 1 winner, Battleoverdoyen, reads well - and suggests that a mark of 147 should be within his compass.
Trip and ground should be ideal - and he also has decent course form (he finished 4th in the 2017 Triumph hurdle).
With the main man doing the steering (as opposed to spending New Years day at Fairyhouse or Tramore !), I think he will prove hard to beat…
Despite that, I also want Ballyhill on side.
He won this race 2 years ago - and finished third in, last year.
He raced off a mark of 144 then - so off a mark of 137 today, he clearly has a very good chance from a pure handicapping perspective.
He’s shown little in his 2 runs so far this season - but I suspect he will bounce back to form today, in ideal conditions.
If he does, then he will undoubtedly go very close…
Plenty of the others can be given a chance - though there is a niggle over them all.
Kalashnikov will have a big job on, giving a lot of weight to some very decent rivals: whilst OK Corral could get caught out by a significant drop in trip.
Conversely, Magic Saint has stamina to prove; whilst Saint Calvados would prefer softer ground and Oldgrangewood is yet to run well at Cheltenham.
In the circumstances, I’m hopeful that splitting stakes between Ex Patriot and Ballyhill, will produce a positive result.
2:35
This looks a near impossible race to call, with all of the runners having a potential angle - but also at least one, significant question mark…
Might Bite is the class horse in the race - but this looks like a confidence building exercise - and he’s hardly thrown in off a mark of 160.
I’m guessing Beware the Bear is running in this, in order to protect his chase mark, until the Grand National weights are released.
That won’t stop him from winning - but it hardly adds to his case.
The Jam Man is quite interesting - though it would be quite difficult to support a horse who won off a 30lb lower mark at Southwell, just 4 runs back !
Skandibourg is the obvious one, under his feather weight.
He was impressive when winning last time at Aintree - though this will be much tougher.
That said, if I was to get involved with the race, it would probably be with one of Fergal O’Brien’s 2 runners.
Goodbye Dancer won really well on his stale debut last time - and must have a chance today, even though he is effectively 10lb higher in a better race.
That said, I slightly prefer the chance of his stable-mate, Ask Dillon.
He made his seasonal debut just 5 days ago - so it’s surprising to see him even running in the race.
The fact he is, I would view positively - and the early support for him is interesting.
I couldn’t back him at the current 7/1, but in a race where no result would surprise me, I think he is just about the most likely winner.
3:10
I was half tempted to take a chance on Roksana in this - even though I don’t think she should be good enough to win !
There are question marks over all of her rivals - whereas there is no reason why she won’t run her race.
Track, trip and ground are all fine for her - and I suspect she will come into the race in good form
Assuming nothing goes awry, then she will go very close - but she is beatable…
If she is beaten then Janika looks the one most likely to inflict the defeat.
On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race - the issue with him, is that all of his form is over fences.
If he proves as good over hurdles, he should win - but we don’t know whether that will be the case.
That said, there is also a chance that Emitom will prove different class to todays rivals.
He was very good as a novice - and is expected to be even better this season.
However, this is his seasonal debut, so there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The late market will probably give the best guide on his chance.
I would be against the other 3 runners, for various reasons - but that’s reflected by their odds.
In summary, Roksana is the winner by default - but it won’t be a great surprise if either Janika or Emitom manage to beat her.
In the circumstances, she makes limited appeal at 7/2…
Musselburgh
1:40
The first of 2 good races on the Musselburgh card - but it looks a minefield !
On the form of his last time out second at Aintree, Fixed Rate looks the one to beat.
He was no match for Sammy Bell in that race - but the winner is seriously progressive and Fixed Rate was making his seasonal debut.
I would expect him to have come on for that run - and even though he’s been raised 4lbs, he still looks the most likely winner.
That said, the market agrees with that statement - so in such an open race, I’d be inclined to look elsewhere in the hunt for ‘value’…
At roughly double the price, Copper West could be the one.
He only finished fifth on his most recent outing - but that was in a particularly strong race (also at Aintree).
Prior to that, he won a very decent contest at Market Rasen.
Todays race looks no stronger than that one - so off a mark just 4lb higher, Copper West appears to have every chance.
It also adds to his case that he is trained by Tom George, whose string has been in excellent form over the Christmas period.
It’s also the only runner that George sends to the Scottish track (quite a journey from Gloucestershire, on New Years day !).
2:15
Dan Skelton also only sends one runner to Musselburgh, from his Warwickshire base (maybe Tom Georges horse box is picking it up, on the way past !) - and I think Peter the Mayo Man is worth siding with…
He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Newbury, when he travelled strongly behind the leaders.
He didn’t get home that day - but the 2m4f trip would have stretched him.
He also didn’t get home last time at Cheltenham - but the ground would have been too soft for him that day.
As a consequence, of those runs, Peter the Mayo Man now finds himself on a mark of just 125 - and he can do damage off that.
In fact, he won a handicap hurdle in 2016 off a mark of 130 - and that earned him a rating of 142. It’s true that he is now 10 - but he is lightly raced and I suspect that most of the ability remains…
What he needs, is a strongly run 2 miles on decent ground - and that is precisely what he will get this afternoon.
In fact, this race could turn into a real burn up - with confirmed front runners, Snookered, L’Inganna Felice and Aristo de Plesis in opposition.
That should suit the hold up horses - and whilst there is no doubt that Ashington is potentially very well handicapped, he could easily be caught out by his inexperience in a race of this nature.
Normal Norman and Sir Chauvelin are 2 others who could take advantage - but so is Peter the Mayo Man, and at much bigger odds, he is worth a speculative play.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 2:00 Ex Patriot 1pt win 8/1
Chel 2:00 Ballyhill 0.5pt win 12/1
Muss 2:15 Peter the Mayo Man 0.5pt win 12/1
Mentions
Chel 12:15 Protektorat (S )
Chel 12:50 Singlefarmpayment (S )
Chel 1:25 Champ (P )
Chel 2:35 Goodbye Dancer (Ask Dillon is a NR)
Chel 3:10 Roksana (O )
Muss 1:40 Copper West (O )
Fake 1:10 Black Buble (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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