Daily write-up - Jan 25th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s trials day at Cheltenham - the final days racing at the course, prior to the festival in March.

There is a 7 race card - and in theory, each of the races could have a bearing on races run at the big meeting.
That may not turn out to be the case - but equally, it’ll be a little surprising if at least some of the horses running this afternoon, aren’t major players in 7 weeks time.

In addition to Cheltenham there is also televised racing at Doncaster.
The feature Sky bet chase is as unfathomable a contest as you will see all season - which is a shame, as the remaining ‘big’ races on card all look a bit too obvious…

Consequently, the all of todays tips are from Cheltenham.

I’ve ended up with 4 on the day - which is a little lighter than I would have expected - but that’s down the the shape of many of the races.

Anyway, hopefully it’s a case of quality over quantity :)

Here’s the rationale behind the days tips - along with my thoughts on the other big races…


Cheltenham

12:40

This is not really a race that I would want to get heavily involved in, as there is too much guesswork required.
That said, if I were to take a position, I would be inclined to oppose Monte Cristo.
He’s ex-French - and making his UK debut for For Nicky Henderson.
Owned by Munir/Souede, he couldn’t have much better connections - but I get the feeling that he’s been priced up primarily on the back of them.
They tend to only have decent horses - but reading between the lines I wonder how good this one is…
In truth, he probably won’t have to be a world beater to take this - but I would still want to oppose him, at around even money.
Roland Ward is the obvious one to take him on with, as he was quite impressive when winning at Kempton over Christmas.
However todays test will be very different - and a 3lb penalty won’t help his cause.
Instead, if I were to get involved with the race, I would be inclined to side with either Galahad Quest or Gerolamo Cardano.
Both will need to step up on what they’ve done so far - but they are highly likely to do so.
Of the pair, I slightly favour Gerolamo Cardano.
He was very impressive when wining a moderate race at Hereford last time.
The form amounts to little, but it’s interesting that his connections are prepared to pitch him into this race.
Supporting him would definitely be a gamble - but at around 7/1 he could be worth a small speculative wager…

1:15

Imperial Aura is the most likely winner of this - but he has been very well found in the market.
In theory, it’s an extremely competitive 12 runner race, in which most of the runners can be given a chance.
A price of 5/2 about him, therefore makes minimal appeal.
I do wonder if his connections view it the same way.
They are quoted in the RP saying that they hope the horse hasn’t got a bug ! That  reads to me like a desperate attempt to boost the price !
I’m sure the market just before the off, will advise on his well being, much better than any vet can !
Regardless, I think he has to be taken on at those odds - and the one I’m going to take him on with, is Sully D’Oc.
He was an official eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Ascot - and I considered tipping him on his next run at Newbury.
I’m glad I didn’t, as he bumped into one that day, in the shape of Fanion D’estruval.
In theory, the winner let the form down a little next time - but I don’t think he was suited by the relative speed test at Kmepton and suspect he is a very good horse.
He beat Sully D’Oc by 6 lengths at Newbury - but there was a further 5 back to the remainder of the field and I think Sully was lucky to get no rating rise for the run.
On his next outing, Sully was made favourite for a fair race at Ascot - but ran poorly and was well beaten.
Connections could offer no reason for the run - but there must be a chance that he didn’t handle the very heavy ground.
He’s been given 5 week to recover - and back on better ground today, I hope he can bounce back to form.
The 2m4f trip is an unknown - but he was staying on well at Newbury so I’m hopeful it won’t be an issue.
What might be an issue are his opponents - even ignoring Imperial Aura !
Plenty can be given a chance, with Cloudy Glen, Gowiththeflow and Court Master all potential dangers.
I was half tempted to split stakes with the last named - and he is certainly worth considering at 20/1.
However, officially speaking I’m sticking with Sully - and hoping he can come out top in a very hot race.

1:50

Whilst I’ve no issue with the 4 horses who head the market for this (Highway One o One, Warthog, Lalor and Spiritofthegames) - they have all run a few times previously, in this kind of race - and whilst each is capable of going close, it would be hard to choose between them - plus, there is little margin in their odds.
Instead, I would rather side with a runner who is less exposed in this kind of race - and there are 3, who I find more attractive.
My Way is the first of them.
It’s rare to see a Paul Nichols trained horse with bottom weight in a race of this nature - and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go close.
He certainly ran well, when chasing home a handicap good thing, at Ascot last time.
The issues with him are that he’s not sure to see out the trip - and is yet to win in 14 attempts.
He’s been backed in to near favouritism - but with that profile, I can’t join in the plunge.
Garde le Victoire is the next one of interest.
I tipped him last time on his seasonal debut in the same Ascot race.
He travelled nicely that day - but didn’t get home.
There is a chance that he needed the run - but there is also a chance that he didn’t stay the trip.
He has to race over nearly 2 furlong further today - and at the end of it, face the Cheltenham hill.
He may be up to the task - but then again…
The final one of interest, is Count Meribel.
He was sent off at 9/1 for the Paddy Power chase, early in November - and ran a fair race to finish sixth.
He’s been dropped a pound for that run - but more importantly, comes into todays race after a 70 day break.
He’s a horse who runs best when fresh, as his previous outing at Carlisle, demonstrated.
He ran Lostintranslation to 2 lengths that day, in receipt of just 6lb.
Lostintranslation is now rated 173 - and whilst he probably didn’t run to that level that day, and Count Meribel was flattered to get as close as he did, there is still plenty of margin, from his current mark of 145.
It just looks to me as if Count Meribel has been targeted at this race - whilst most of his opponents are running because it is the logical thing to do.
Garde le Victoire may be worth a small saver - but the Count has to be the main bet in the race…

2:25

Based on form and ratings, Bristol de Mai should win this.
He is rated at least 6lb superior to all of his rivals: whilst his third place in last seasons Gold Cup, is much better form than any of them can muster.
However, he is the most exposed runner in the field; and generally, he’s tended not to show his best form at Cheltenham.
He is very much the one to beat - but equally, it won’t be a major surprise if he is beaten.
Santini is the most interesting runner in the field - and was my pre-season Gold Cup fancy.
Today should show whether he is capable of operating at that level, as he will need to go very close if he’s to have any chance in the March showpiece.
I expected him to be a clear favourite for this race (such is his reputation): however, the betting public have cottoned on to the worries over whether he will be sharp enough to win this…
He is stamina laden - so ideally wants very soft ground. He’s also not run since the beginning of November - and this will be primarily a prep race for the Gold cup.
With doubts over the top 2 in the betting, there really should be a betting opportunity - but if there is, I can’t see it !
The novice, Slate House, may not stay the trip and there is a question mark over his jumping: and whilst Top Ville Ben should have no issues with trip or jumping, suitability of the course and whether he is good enough, are valid questions.
De Rasher Counter also has a lot to prove, as he’s rated 12lb inferior to Bristol de Mai: but that’s still 6lb superior to Mister Whitaker (who is also unproven over the trip).
In short, it’s not an easy one to solve !
Bristol de Mai is the default winner - though Santini could improve past him.
The other 4 have plenty to prove - with Top Ville Ben looking the one most likely to take advantage if the market leaders don’t deliver.
It should be an interesting race to watch - but there are too many question marks to consider serious financial involvement.

3:00

I think it is worth taking a risk on Rocket Lad in this…
He’s the highest rated horse in the race - and that’s despite only having run over hurdles 3 times.
More than that, he fell on one of those occasions - and finished tailed off on another !
However, when he did run his ran (and complete), he was very impressive.
That was at Gowran back in October, when he gave weight and beating to the Willie Mullins trained Drury.
The runner up has subsequently won twice: whilst, Run Wild Fred, who finished third, won his next race - and Silver Sheen, who was fourth, won the Pertemps qualifier at Warwick a fortnight ago.
In short, it is very strong form - and based on it, Rocket Lad definitely sets the race standard.
That said, these kind of races tend to be more about potential than achievement to date - and Rocket Lad will need to get the better of a couple of well thought of horses, if he is to win.
King Roland is apparently held in very high regard by Harry Fry; whilst Harry Senior is also viewed very positively by Colin Tizzard.
If either one was a price, then they would be worth considering - but they are both significantly shorter in the betting than Rocket Lad (that’s what reputations do !), which makes him the value play in the race…

3:35

It’s never easy to take on an apparent super-star - and that’s how Paisley Park is now viewed - but if there is a day to oppose him, then I think it’s today…
For a start - and whisper this quietly - I’m not sure he’s quite as good as people think.
Unbeaten in his last 6 - including last seasons stayers hurdle - his record is certainly impressive.
However, when you look at the horses he’s beaten, they hardly set the pulse racing…
West Approach, Sam Spinner - and even the 11 year old Thistlecrack.
Non of them can be considered top class staying hurdlers.
Ofcourse, Paisley Park can only ever beat what is put in front of him - and he certainly has an admirable attitude.
Whether he has the ability to match, we are more likely to find out today…
He faces a couple of very interesting rivals in the shape of If the Cap Fits and Summerville Boy.
If the Cap Fits is the solid one, having proved himself over 3 miles - and having put up possibly his best ever performance last time, when giving weight and a beating to Call me Lord.
He’s unproven at Cheltenham but that’s unlikely to be an issue - and he should certainly go close.
However, I’m hoping that Summerville Boy will prove to be the fly in ointment.
He was top class as a novice (won the Supreme hurdle) - but then disappointed in open company, last season.
He tried fences for his first 2 runs this season - but following a fall on his second outing, reverted to hurdle last time.
That was at todays course over 2m4f - and he was a revelation in beating Roksana.
On that form, he is closely matched with If the Cap Fits - but I think the key to this race, could be the pace.
Johnny Burke made the running on Summerville Boy last time - and I’m hoping he will do the same today.
The horse is not guaranteed to stay todays 3 mile trip - but if Burke can dictate the fractions, his chance of doing so should greatly increase.
More than that, if he can also inject pace at the right point in the race, I can see him catching out both Paisley Park and If the Cap Fits.
It will not be an easy one to pull off - but I’ve been very impressed by Burke as a front running jockey recently.
Fingers crossed, no pressure Johnny :)


Doncaster

2:05

This is not a race that can be called with any confidence.
All 5 runners can be given a chance - but equally, it’s not possible to make a cast iron case for any of them.
Champagne Well strikes me as just about the most likely winner - but I certainly couldn’t back him at 2/1.
Similarly, whilst I could maybe take a risk on Boss Man Fred at 5/1 - his current price of 2/1 has no attraction !
In the circumstances, one of the outsiders should hold appeal - but non of them particularly do…
There is too much guesswork required with Thomas Macdonagh - and his price looks about right.
The stable form of Evas Oscar, is a worry - which means that Ramses de Teillee is most tempting as a betting proposition.
Certainly, I think he is over-priced at around 8/1.
However, I suspect he would prefer softer ground - and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him run down late on.
In the circumstances, I think it has to be a watching race…

2:40

This is similar to the previous race in that whilst I think the 2 favs are too short in the betting - I can’t find one which I feel comfortable taking them on with.
Based on official ratings, then Lady Buttons and Floressa don't deserve to dominate the betting as they do - but I’ll be surprised if one of them doesn’t win.
Lady Buttons sets the race standard (she won it last year) - but Floressa is an improving mare and in receipt of 4lb, could very well have her measure.
On official ratings, then Irish Roe and Litteral Ci are entitled to go extremely close - but I’ll be surprised if either one manages to come out on top.
And whilst TImetochill has potential - that has been picked up by the market and she is arguably shorter in the betting than she should be.
In summary, whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see a close finish - I expect the race will be won by one of the big two…

3:15

This is the third ‘watching’ race on the Doncaster card - but it is very different to the 2 that precede it.
Rarely will you see a race as open as this one.
I’ve looked through it numerous times - and on each occasion, come to the conclusion that a different horse will win !
It’s been the same with the betting, as the early market has been turned almost completely on its head (and I suspect that will happen again, before the off !).
I could honestly only eliminate one or two of the runners - and whilst in theory, there is ‘value’ in some of the outsiders, the chance on me hitting on the right one, is  slim…
I can’t even really offer a short-list - though I can tell you which horses I considered tipping !
Cobra de mai was the first (he caught my eye on his last run, over Christmas); and Monbeg River the next (based on his run in this race, 12 months ago).
I then switched to OK Corral (could be well handicapped - and Derek O Connor over to ride); and then Good Man Pat (again, could be well handicapped - and will appreciate the step up in trip).
However, all the time, I was fearful of Dingo Dollar, Solomen Grey and Fingerontheswitch - whilst also mindful that it was quite possible that one of the others could come out on top.
Ultimately, I came to the conclusion that it was not a race to tip in !
It’s going to be won by the horse who jumps and travels best - and gets a bit of luck in running.
And unfortunately, we’ll only know which one that is, once the tapes have gone up !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Chel  1:15 Sully D'Oc 0.5pt win 16/1
Chel 1:50 Count Meribel 1pt win 15/2
Chel 3:00 Rocket Lad 0.75pt win 8/1
Chel 3:35 Summerville Boy 0.5pt win 8/1

Mentions

Chel 12:40 Gerolamo Cardano (S )
Donc 2:05 Ramses de Teillee (O )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions