There has been a lot of rain this week - and it’s fallen on already saturated ground.
As a consequence, the going at todays 4 meetings, will be on the bottom-less side of heavy !
I suspect that if there had been any rain whatsoever, in the past 24 hours, then meetings would have been lost - but it relented and they all go ahead…
Needless to say, conditions will be extreme - and that has affected field sizes (which are significantly smaller than might otherwise have been expected).
The key today, will be to find horses capable of handling the brutal conditions.
However, at least we know where we stand ! (which isn’t the case when there is late rain).
Ultimately, I’ve issued 5 tips on the day, across 4 races.
The price of one of them was hammered overnight - but I’ve stuck with it regardless.
The same thing happened to the price of another one that I fancied - and I’ve decided to leave it alone.
These are the calls I have to make !
Anyway, here’s the rationale for the tips that I did issue - along with my views on most of the days other big races…
Haydock
2:40
This is probably the best race of the day, from a betting perspective.
The final declarations for the race were released on Thursday, so I had plenty of time to examine it from all angles.
Suffice to say, a case can be made for a few of the runners - in fact, I switched allegiance between a number of them, before I settled on my final selection.
Defintly Red, Vintage Clouds, Midnight Tune and Geronimo all came in for serious consideration - but finally, I settled on Prime Venture.
Needless to say, boundless stamina is going to be a key requirement this afternoon - and Prime Venture certainly ticks that box.
His most recent run saw him finish fourth in the Welsh National - a race that was also run on heavy ground.
He was staying on that day - and I expect him to do the same again this afternoon.
That said, the big attraction with him, is his light weight.
He will effectively be carrying just 9st11lb this afternoon - taking into account the claim of his very capable jockey.
That means he will be receiving weight from all his rivals - with Definitly Red having to give him almost 2 stone.
That could prove decisive in the prevailing conditions…
In terms of his rivals, then I came to the conclusion that if connections of Definitly Red have dreams of winning the Grand National, then they don’t want to be winning this afternoon !
And whilst Vintage Clouds has good course form and will handle conditions - he was flattered to finish a distant third on his last run, and simply doesn’t appear to be anywhere near his top form.
Midnight Tune and Geronimo are harder to assess - and there is a chance that one of them will prove well handicapped.
As a consequence, I think the sensible ploy is to back Prime Venture EW, as, provided his jumping holds up, he really should be there or thereabouts…
3:15
I’m pretty keen to oppose Pentland Hills in this.
I don’t doubt that he’s a talented horse - but I just can’t see todays conditions suiting him.
He’s also only 5, so lacks the maturity of his 3 rivals.
He opened up at 6/4 yesterday - and whilst that price has drifted a little, he still takes a big chunk out of the market.
Darasso is the one who has been best supported against him - and he is a potential danger.
Joseph O’Brien sends him over from Ireland, to make his seasonal debut - which is an interesting move.
It could simply be a case of him needing to get a run into the horse - and limited opportunities in Ireland - but he still looks to have a good chance.
However, the solid option in the race, is Ballyandy.
He is the oldest runner in the field at 9 - but he’s battle hardy and has shown himself capable of coping with heavy ground, on a number of occasions.
He’s been chopped and changed a few times over the past few seasons, in terms of distance and hurdles/fences - but he’s contested 2 mile hurdles on his last 2 outings and that has seen him take his form to a new level.
On his penultimate run, he finished well in front of Pentland Hills, when a narrow runner up in the International hurdle at Cheltenhams December meeting - and he followed that up by finishing a even more creditable third, in the Christmas hurdle at Kempton.
He’s clearly in top of his game - and with conditions to suit - and in receipt of weight from all of his rivals, I think he is worthy of support.
3:45
I really couldn’t believe my eyes yesterday, when Muratello as put in at 14/1 for this race, when the early markets were put up (B365 actually went 16/1 !).
It’s not that I think he’s a certainty - but he’s an unexposed horse up against a lot of exposed horses - and generally, they tend to be priced up very defensively.
Ofcourse, it didn’t take long for his price to go into free-fall - though I was still a little surprised to see that it had halved, this morning !
Clearly there is no where near as much ‘value’ in backing him now - but he could be different class - and there’s a chance that his price might drift !
In terms of the case for him, then he caught my eye last time when travelling strongly in a better race at Kempton over Christmas.
He didn’t get home that day - so a drop to the minimum trip, seems like a good move.
He should have no issue with the ground - and whilst he has only run 5 times in this country, his hurdle form from last season stands up to the closest scrutiny.
On his UK debut (at Haydock), he finished third behind Mr Fisher and Bright Forecast - and just ahead of Esprit du Large.
All 4 of those are now rated around 150 - whereas Muratello gets to run today off a mark of 125.
In short, he could easily have a stone in hand of his mark…
If, for whatever reason, he doesn’t perform, then there’s a chance that Ubaltique will be the one who takes advantage.
He has won this race 3 times previously (missing out last year) - so quite obviously, the trip, track - and ground suit him perfectly,
He’s now 12 - so quite long in the tooth. However, his win 3 outings ago, showed that he retains plenty of ability - and he’s well enough handicapped on a mark of 116.
I think the sensible way to deal with the race is to split stakes across the pair of them, with the main bet on Muratello and a saver on Ubaltique.
Hopefully one of them will deliver the goods !
4:15
Gangster is a horse who has caught my eye on his last 2 outings…
Formerly trained in Ireland - initially by Willie Mullins and then by Henry De Bromhead - he threatened to be high class.
In fact, he was sent off at just 15/2 in the 2016 Albert Bartlett, won by Unowhatimeanharry.
He was rated 147 at that time - and was expected to make a top class novice chaser, the following season (when he transferred to De Bromhead).
In fairness, he didn’t do badly over fences - but he also didn’t scale the heights that were hoped..
He was late returning, the season after his novice one (suggesting he may have had an issue) and he spent his time switching between hurdles and fences.
However, the level of his form declined - and it was no surprise that he was sold…
His next appearance was last November, when he made his debut for Warren Greatrex, at Ffos Las.
I felt he ran quite well that day - even though appearing to need the outing.
His next - and most recent run - was at Doncaster in December - and he ran really well that day.
He was completely unfancied (SP of 28/1) but turning in, it looked as if he might win.
Again however, he didn’t get home - but I’m hoping it was simply a case of the run still being needed.
If that was the case, then he has every chance this afternoon.
His mark is now down to 126 and he will have no issue with the ground.
The application of a tongue tie is an interesting move - and the success of that, may determine whether he sees out his race today.
If he does, then I think he will take all of the beating…
Of his rivals, then the one who worries me most, is Takingrisks.
He’s best known as a chaser - but can operate over hurdles and is well enough handicapped, based on his chase form, to be very competitive today.
Ascot
2:25
This is a really open race - and whilst there are only 8 runners, I wouldn’t honestly be surprised if any of them won.
Pic D’Orhy is possibly the most interesting - on only his third outing for Paul Nichols.
His first was in last seasons Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
He was sent off at just 12/1 that day - and travelled well, until weakening after the second last.
His price that day, suggested that he is well thought of; whilst the way he moved through the race, suggested that he has plenty of talent.
In theory, he should be more than capable of defying a mark of 146 - even if there is currently limited evidence to prove it !
I’m not surprised he was put in short - and I’m not surprised that his price is now drifting.
The drift wouldn’t put me off backing him (which I might well do - if he gets to a silly price - say 8/1).
It’s harder to find a particular angle for any of the other runners.
Most are progressive handicappers - the tricky bit is figuring out which one is progressing fastest !
The exception to that statement, is Jollys Cracked it.
His best days are probably behind him - but Ascot is his course and the handicapper has given him a real chance.
He’s the other one that I would consider siding with - though I’ll be keeping stakes on the race, quite small…
3:00
I had hoped to get involved with Allyson Monterg in this - but he’s been too well backed to warrant the risk.
I said earlier in the week, that I wouldn’t be as obsessed by the 9:00 prices - and I stand by that.
However, that is when a solid case can be made for a horse - not a speculative one, as is the case here.
I’m also aware that the horse has been put up by a number of industry tipsters - and that always destroys the early price.
Again, I could see him drifting - and that won’t put me off backing him - though a drift may also mean that he’s not fully revved up…
And as the horse hasn’t run for almost a year, that has to be a concern.
He has a fair record fresh - but there must be a chance that he will need the run.
There also must be a chance that he will find todays trip a bit short - though he is likely to love the ground and that will put an emphasis on stamina, relatively speaking.
Certainly, it can be argued that he is potentially very well handicapped - so if he is fully fit and doesn’t get outpaced, he should run a massive race.
However, even then, he is facing some strong rivals.
Espoir de Guys is probably the pick. He was raised a stone for his very impressive win last time - but that could still under-estimate him.
The 2 northern challengers, Sams Adventure and Domaine de Lisle could also be dangerous; and then there is Happy Diva !!
In truth, even the 4 outsiders can’t be completely dismissed, so it’s not a race to go chasing a price in…
At double figures, Allyson Monterg was worth a risk - at 13/2, he’s not…
3:35
In all probability, this will be turn out to be a match between Defi de Seuil and Un de Sceaux.
The pair clashed last time in the Tingle Creek at Sandown - and Defi just came out best.
It can be argued that Un de Sceaux should reverse the form today - with the run under his belt (he was making his seasonal debut at Sandown) and on softer ground.
However, Defi is the young improver - and he idled when he hit the front that day.
Delivered a little later today, I think he will be able to confirm the form.
Whilst I don’t think he will win, it can be argued that there is a bit of theoretical value in the price of Janika.
He only finished fourth in the Tingle creek - and there is no real reason why he should reverse the form with the main protagonists.
However, he will benefit from todays slightly longer trip - and softer ground - and whilst 9 lengths is a lot to make up, stranger things happen.
It’s hard to say what price might warrant a risk - but anything over 14/1 would be worth considering…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Hayd 2:40 Prime Venture 0.5pt EW 13/2
Hayd 3:15 Ballyandy 1pt win 4/1
Hayd 3:45 Muratello 0.75pt win 13/2
Hayd 3:45 Ubaltique 0.25pt win 14/1
Hayd 4:15 Gangster 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Asc 2:25 Pic D'Orhy (S )
Asc 3:00 Allyson Monterg (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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