Daily write-up - Jan 23rd

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wetherby and Fakenham in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

As you are all aware, TVB focuses on ‘big races’ - and whilst there is some reasonable action at both Wetherby and Fakenham (for a midweek), non of the races could be described as ‘big’.

That’s not the case at Gowran however, where the 66th running of the Thyestes chase takes place.

The race has some history: having been won by both Arkle and Flybolt - the 2 highest ever rated horses, in the history of jump racing.

It was also won by Jadanli in 2013 - one of the greatest ever TVB tips :)

I also managed to tip the race winner last year, so It’s certainly a race that’s close to my heart...

I have spent a lot of time turning over todays race - and whilst I’m not confident that I’ve managed to find the winner, I am hopeful.
Certainly, I feel that I’ve latched on to a couple of horses who have a good chance - and ultimately you can’t do much more than that.

I’ve also previewed a couple of the other main races on the card.

Here are my thoughts…


Gowran Park

1:50

The market suggests that this is a 2 horse race between Benie des Dieux and Apples Jade - and the ratings pretty much agree.
It’s unusual for a mare to be the top rated horse in an open race - but the pair of them are rated 157, which is 2lb above Penhill.
In truth, it’s hard to argue, with either the ratings - or the betting...
Last time out, Apples Jade finished 20 lengths ahead of Penhill, when the pair clashed at Leopardstown over Christmas. And whilst the latter gets a 7lb pull in the weights today, that really shouldn’t be sufficient to reverse the form.
Ofcourse, there is a chance that Apples Jade won’t repeat that performance - she had been struggling for form, prior to the race; whilst Penhill could also improve for his second run of the season - but on balance, the result really should be the same.
However, even if Apples Jade does again get the better of Penhill, Benie des Dieux could be a different matter…
The 2 mares clashed twice in 2017 - when Apples Jade was at the peak of her powers - and on both occasions, Benie came out of top.
In Fact, Benie is unbeaten in 8 starts for Willie Mullins - when she has stood up.
Her only defeat came when she fell at the final flight, in last seasons mares hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
If she had stood up that day, she would have won, so she clearly sets the standard.
The only issue with her, is that she will be making her seasonal debut this afternoon.
In an ‘ordinary’ race that wouldn’t be an issue - but she will need to be close to her peak, if she is to beat Apples Jade.
Ultimately, this is likely to come down to how fit Benie des Dieux is.
Her main target is the mares hurdle at Cheltenham, so I would expect Willie Mullins to have left something to work on.
She still might be good enough to beat Apples Jade (as she is probably in slight decline) - but there is no appeal in backing her at odds on, with a question mark over her fitness.

2:25

I tipped R’Evelyn Pleasure, when he disappointed at Fairyhouse earlier this month.
That was in a good quality handicap chase - and he was very well supported in the market that day.
However, his jumping was shoddy: he was soon on the back foot and never really sighted with a chance.
I was keen on him that day, because he had caught my eye 10 days earlier when making his seasonal debut at Punchestown.
That was over hurdles - and he looked likely to win turning in, until a lack of fitness seemed to find him out.
He’s back over hurdles today - and racing from a mark 17lb lower than the one he ran from last time.
His run at Punchestown showed he can be competitive off his hurdles mark - so it’s really just whether there is something better handicapped in the race…
Unfortunately, it’s hard to know whether that's the case, as he is up against a number of potential improvers.
Eleazar des Neiges is an obvious danger - with Impatient Partner, another.
And whilst Abraham and Jukebox Jive aren’t quite as unexposed, both are also open to improvement.
I would certainly expect R’Evelyn Pleasure to run well - and he could easily be placed - however, he is vulnerable from a win perspective which means odds of 6/1 have limited appeal.

3:00

It’s quite incredible, that of the 18 runners in todays field, a third are trained by Willie Mullins: a third by Gordon Elliott - and a third by ‘others’.
Such is the balance of power nowadays, in Irish NH racing…
Ofcourse, the ‘scatter gun’ approach of the big 2, makes it much harder to figure out what’s going on: which of their runners are fancied - and which are just making up the numbers…
Jockey Bookings can help - but even they can’t always be taken at face value.
It certainly makes solving the puzzle quite tricky ! 

All this said, with a straight bat, I make Acapella Bourgeois just about the most likely winner of todays race.
Furthermore, the booking of Paul Townend suggests that he is Willies number 1 - and for that reason alone, he has to be respected.
In his younger days, Acapella was trained by Sandra Hughes and threatened to be absolutely top class.
The expectation was that when he transferred to WIllie Mullins, his career would take off - but that’s not really happened.
He’s clearly had a few issues over the past couple of season, but a third in last years Irish National, showed what he is capable of - and I thought there was a lot to like about his seasonal reappearance behind Al Book Photo at Tramore.
He appeared to at least run to his current rating of 152, that day - and as most of Willies have improved for the run, I suspect he could be capable of running to around 160 this afternoon.
If he does that, then he will go very close (you tend to need at least 7lb ion hand of your mark, to win these kind of races).
The other one that really interests me, is Moyhenna.
She is trained by Denis Hogan and showed herself a very talented mare, when wining twice last spring.
On the first occasion, she hacked up in a novice chase at Limerick - and she then followed that up by winning a competitive handicap at the Punchestown festival.
That was off a mark of 132 - and she races from a mark of 142 this afternoon.
However, she ran off the latter rating at Limerick on her latest start at Christmas, and was just about to make her challenge, when falling at the third last.
It was too far out to say whether she would have won - but it did demonstrate that she could be competitive off her current rating.
I’m hopeful that she will improve for todays step up in trip - and whilst it’s not ideal that she is racing today on the back of a fall, she did the same thing last season, prior to her first win.
In a race of this nature, there are obviously plenty who can be given a chance.
I’d probably be most fearful of the novices: Smoking Gun, Lord Schnitzel and Choungaya, as all have significant scope for improvement - equally however, they all have sizeable question marks against them.
Stamina is the worry for Ex Patriot: whilst Chef des Obeaux just looks a bit short in the market (accepting he has a chance).
In summary, I’m happy splitting stakes across Acapella Bourgeois and Moyhenna - and hopefully one of them will come home in front.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips

GowP 3:00 Acapella Bourgeois 0.5pt win 11/2
GowP 3:00 Moyhenna 0.5pt win 11/1

Mentions

GowP 2:25 R'Evelyn Pleasure (O )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Review of the day

It’s not easy to summarise a day like today.

I issued tips in 4 of the Haydock races and between them, they gave us a bit of everything !

First up it was Prime Venture.

I rarely tip EW - and he demonstrated why !

The Haydock ground wasn’t as heavy as I expected (it looked to be riding closer to soft, to me) and that wouldn’t have been in his favour.
However, he was still going nicely, when he made a mistake at a fence in the back straight - and came down.

If I’m honest, I don’t think he would have won.
Vintage Clouds bounced right back to form and took the race apart.
I do however, think there’s a fair chance that he would have placed - though ofcourse, we will never know for sure...

Next up it was Ballyandy.
Again, I tipped him expecting much softer ground.

Truly heavy ground would have suited him - and not helped favourite, Pentland Hills.
And half way up the run in, I though it had cost him victory.

But as Pentland Hills began to tire (he had raced keenly), Sam Twiston Davies conjured an amazing run out of Ballyandy and some how he got up, literally on the line.

The fact he could be backed at 7/1 in the photo, shows how close it was - and even having seen the still frame, it was hard to say that he’d won.

Bearing in mind how things have gone over the past couple of weeks, I was happy enough to take it - though I was less happy when ‘normal service’ resumed in the very next race !

I said this morning that I thought Muratello might have a stone in hand of his mark - and I suspect that could be the case.

Unfortunately for him, Billingsley had a couple of pounds more - and ultimately that proved decisive.

The 2 of them had the race to themselves up the home straight, with Muratello appearing to have the leaders measure.
However, when Sam TD went to win his race, Billingsley pulled out a bit more.

It was very frustrating, because Muratello was clearly very well fancied.
14/1 yesterday; he was 7/1 this morning - and 7/2 at the off !

However, Billingsley was equally well fancied - and most races only have one winner !
We were on the wrong side this time - so in the space of a race, we were back to being owed one !

Ubaltique ran well, in behind the pair of them.
Again, he would have wanted the ground softer - and a staying on fifth place suggested he may have another win in him.

Gangster was the final tip on the day - but he was disappointing.
I quite fancied him (despite his price) - but the late drift was ominous and he was never really travelling.

I’ve no idea what the issue was - but I wouldn’t plan on supporting him again, in the short term…

There were a couple of Mentions in action, at Ascot - but neither troubled the judge.
Pic D’Orhy was a big drifter (as I half expected). He travelled really strongly in the race - but didn’t get home. Cyrname used to do the same - and like him, I suspect we’ll only see the best of Pic D’Orhy next season, when he goes over fences.
Allyson Monterg was the days other Mention.
I would have liked to tip him - but his price dropped too far, for a speculative one.
He was pulled up around half way, when something evidently went wrong.
His profile suggests he is a hard horse to keep sound - and whilst I’m sure he has plenty of ability, getting him to produce it on the race course, is clearly not easy…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 18th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

There has been a lot of rain this week - and it’s fallen on already saturated ground.
As a consequence, the going at todays 4 meetings, will be on the bottom-less side of heavy !

I suspect that if there had been any rain whatsoever, in the past 24 hours, then meetings would have been lost - but it relented and they all go ahead…

Needless to say, conditions will be extreme - and that has affected field sizes (which are significantly smaller than might otherwise have been expected).

The key today, will be to find horses capable of handling the brutal conditions.
However, at least we know where we stand ! (which isn’t the case when there is late rain).

Ultimately, I’ve issued 5 tips on the day, across 4 races.

The price of one of them was hammered overnight - but I’ve stuck with it regardless.
The same thing happened to the price of another one that I fancied - and I’ve decided to leave it alone.
These are the calls I have to make !

Anyway, here’s the rationale for the tips that I did issue - along with my views on most of the days other big races…



Haydock

2:40

This is probably the best race of the day, from a betting perspective.
The final declarations for the race were released on Thursday, so I had plenty of time to examine it from all angles.
Suffice to say, a case can be made for a few of the runners - in fact, I switched allegiance between a number of them, before I settled on my final selection.
Defintly Red, Vintage Clouds, Midnight Tune and Geronimo all came in for serious consideration - but finally, I settled on Prime Venture.
Needless to say, boundless stamina is going to be a key requirement this afternoon - and Prime Venture certainly ticks that box.
His most recent run saw him finish fourth in the Welsh National - a race that was also run on heavy ground.
He was staying on that day - and I expect him to do the same again this afternoon.
That said, the big attraction with him, is his light weight.
He will effectively be carrying just 9st11lb this afternoon - taking into account the claim of his very capable jockey.
That means he will be receiving weight from all his rivals - with Definitly Red having to give him almost 2 stone.
That could prove decisive in the prevailing conditions…
In terms of his rivals, then I came to the conclusion that if connections of Definitly Red have dreams of winning the Grand National, then they don’t want to be winning this afternoon !
And whilst Vintage Clouds has good course form and will handle conditions - he was flattered to finish a distant third on his last run, and simply doesn’t appear to be anywhere near his top form.
Midnight Tune and Geronimo are harder to assess - and there is a chance that one of them will prove well handicapped.
As a consequence, I think the sensible ploy is to back Prime Venture EW, as, provided his jumping holds up, he really should be there or thereabouts…

3:15

I’m pretty keen to oppose Pentland Hills in this.
I don’t doubt that he’s a talented horse - but I just can’t see todays conditions suiting him.
He’s also only 5, so lacks the maturity of his 3 rivals.
He opened up at 6/4 yesterday - and whilst that price has drifted a little, he still takes a big chunk out of the market.
Darasso is the one who has been best supported against him - and he is a potential  danger.
Joseph O’Brien sends him over from Ireland, to make his seasonal debut - which is an interesting move.
It could simply be a case of him needing to get a run into the horse - and limited opportunities in Ireland - but he still looks to have a good chance.
However, the solid option in the race, is Ballyandy.
He is the oldest runner in the field at 9 - but he’s battle hardy and has shown himself capable of coping with heavy ground, on a number of occasions.
He’s been chopped and changed a few times over the past few seasons, in terms of distance and hurdles/fences - but he’s contested 2 mile hurdles on his last 2 outings   and that has seen him take his form to a new level.
On his penultimate run, he finished well in front of Pentland Hills, when a narrow runner up in the International hurdle at Cheltenhams December meeting - and he followed that up by finishing a even more creditable third, in the Christmas hurdle at Kempton.
He’s clearly in top of his game - and with conditions to suit - and in receipt of weight from all of his rivals, I think he is worthy of support.

3:45

I really couldn’t believe my eyes yesterday, when Muratello as put in at 14/1 for this race, when the early markets were put up (B365 actually went 16/1 !).
It’s not that I think he’s a certainty - but he’s an unexposed horse up against a lot of exposed horses - and generally, they tend to be priced up very defensively.
Ofcourse, it didn’t take long for his price to go into free-fall - though I was still a little surprised to see that it had halved, this morning !
Clearly there is no where near as much ‘value’ in backing him now - but he could be different class - and there’s a chance that his price might drift !
In terms of the case for him, then he caught my eye last time when travelling strongly in a better race at Kempton over Christmas.
He didn’t get home that day - so a drop to the minimum trip, seems like a good move.
He should have no issue with the ground - and whilst he has only run 5 times in this country, his hurdle form from last season stands up to the closest scrutiny.
On his UK debut (at Haydock), he finished third behind Mr Fisher and Bright Forecast - and just ahead of Esprit du Large.
All 4 of those are now rated around 150 - whereas Muratello gets to run today off a mark of 125.
In short, he could easily have a stone in hand of his mark…
If, for whatever reason, he doesn’t perform, then there’s a chance that Ubaltique will be the one who takes advantage.
He has won this race 3 times previously (missing out last year) - so quite obviously, the trip, track - and ground suit him perfectly,
He’s now 12 - so quite long in the tooth. However, his win 3 outings ago, showed that he retains plenty of ability - and he’s well enough handicapped on a mark of 116.
I think the sensible way to deal with the race is to split stakes across the pair of them, with the main bet on Muratello and a saver on Ubaltique.
Hopefully one of them will deliver the goods !

4:15

Gangster is a horse who has caught my eye on his last 2 outings…
Formerly trained in Ireland - initially by Willie Mullins and then by Henry De Bromhead - he threatened to be high class.
In fact, he was sent off at just 15/2 in the 2016 Albert Bartlett, won by Unowhatimeanharry.
He was rated 147 at that time - and was expected to make a top class novice chaser, the following season (when he transferred to De Bromhead).
In fairness, he didn’t do badly over fences - but he also didn’t scale the heights that were hoped..
He was late returning, the season after his novice one (suggesting he may have had an issue) and he spent his time switching between hurdles and fences.
However, the level of his form declined - and it was no surprise that he was sold…
His next appearance was last November, when he made his debut for Warren Greatrex, at Ffos Las.
I felt he ran quite well that day - even though appearing to need the outing.
His next - and most recent run - was at Doncaster in December - and he ran really well that day.
He was completely unfancied (SP of 28/1) but turning in, it looked as if he might win.
Again however, he didn’t get home - but I’m hoping it was simply a case of the run still being needed.
If that was the case, then he has every chance this afternoon.
His mark is now down to 126 and he will have no issue with the ground.
The application of a tongue tie is an interesting move - and the success of that, may determine whether he sees out his race today.
If he does, then I think he will take all of the beating…
Of his rivals, then the one who worries me most, is Takingrisks.
He’s best known as a chaser - but can operate over hurdles and is well enough handicapped, based on his chase form, to be very competitive today.


Ascot

2:25

This is a really open race - and whilst there are only 8 runners, I wouldn’t honestly be surprised if any of them won.
Pic D’Orhy is possibly the most interesting - on only his third outing for Paul Nichols.
His first was in last seasons Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
He was sent off at just 12/1 that day - and travelled well, until weakening after the second last.
His price that day, suggested that he is well thought of; whilst the way he moved through the race, suggested that he has plenty of talent.
In theory, he should be more than capable of defying a mark of 146 - even if there is currently limited evidence to prove it !
I’m not surprised he was put in short - and I’m not surprised that his price is now drifting.
The drift wouldn’t put me off backing him (which I might well do - if he gets to a silly price - say 8/1).
It’s harder to find a particular angle for any of the other runners.
Most are progressive handicappers - the tricky bit is figuring out which one is progressing fastest !
The exception to that statement, is Jollys Cracked it.
His best days are probably behind him - but Ascot is his course and the handicapper  has given him a real chance.
He’s the other one that I would consider siding with - though I’ll be keeping stakes on the race, quite small…

3:00

I had hoped to get involved with Allyson Monterg in this - but he’s been too well backed to warrant the risk.
I said earlier in the week, that I wouldn’t be as obsessed by the 9:00 prices - and I stand by that.
However, that is when a solid case can be made for a horse - not a speculative one, as is the case here.
I’m also aware that the horse has been put up by a number of industry tipsters - and that always destroys the early price.
Again, I could see him drifting - and that won’t put me off backing him - though a drift may also mean that he’s not fully revved up…
And as the horse hasn’t run for almost a year, that has to be a concern.
He has a fair record fresh - but there must be a chance that he will need the run.
There also must be a chance that he will find todays trip a bit short - though he is likely to love the ground and that will put an emphasis on stamina, relatively speaking.
Certainly, it can be argued that he is potentially very well handicapped - so if he is fully fit and doesn’t get outpaced, he should run a massive race.
However, even then, he is facing some strong rivals.
Espoir de Guys is probably the pick. He was raised a stone for his very impressive win last time - but that could still under-estimate him.
The 2 northern challengers, Sams Adventure and Domaine de Lisle could also be dangerous; and then there is Happy Diva !!
In truth, even the 4 outsiders can’t be completely dismissed, so it’s not a race to go chasing a price in…
At double figures, Allyson Monterg was worth a risk - at 13/2, he’s not…

3:35

In all probability, this will be turn out to be a match between Defi de Seuil and Un de Sceaux.
The pair clashed last time in the Tingle Creek at Sandown - and Defi just came out best.
It can be argued that Un de Sceaux should reverse the form today - with the run under his belt (he was making his seasonal debut at Sandown) and on softer ground.
However, Defi is the young improver - and he idled when he hit the front that day.
Delivered a little later today, I think he will be able to confirm the form.
Whilst I don’t think he will win, it can be argued that there is a bit of theoretical value in the price of Janika.
He only finished fourth in the Tingle creek - and there is no real reason why he should reverse the form with the main protagonists.
However, he will benefit from todays slightly longer trip - and softer ground - and whilst 9 lengths is a lot to make up, stranger things happen.
It’s hard to say what price might warrant a risk - but anything over 14/1 would be worth considering…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Hayd 2:40 Prime Venture 0.5pt EW 13/2
Hayd 3:15 Ballyandy 1pt win 4/1
Hayd 3:45 Muratello 0.75pt win 13/2
Hayd 3:45 Ubaltique 0.25pt win 14/1
Hayd 4:15 Gangster 0.5pt win 14/1

Mentions
Asc 2:25 Pic D'Orhy (S )
Asc 3:00 Allyson Monterg (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Review of the day

Days like today, do make you wonder…

I had an incredibly stressful morning, trying to issue the tips - and then writing/adjusting the write-up to reflect what I'd been able to do.

I hoped that things would get better once the racing got underway - but alas, that wasn’t the case !

Two seconds and a third, from 4 tips, only tell half the story - as does a winning Mention, who had a BSP of 6/1 - the price I was looking for, in order to make him a tip !

There must be easier ways to make a living...

In terms of the detail, then Hold the Note was the first tip to run.

This was the second time I’d tipped him in the past month - and once again, he was incredibly unlucky.

He travelled through the race like the best horse - and when he jumped into the lead over the last, it looked all over (he traded at 1.16 in running).
However Two for Gold battled back - and his tenacity ultimately won out.

It was a horrible way to start the day - particularly as it emphasised how unlucky we had been on Boxing day (when Hold the Note was virtually brought down).

R’Evelyn Pleasure was the next tip to run - but his jumping was poor and he was never able to get into a challenging position.
He had been very well backed just before the off, so I suspect we were on a ‘live’ one - but if you can’t jump the fences, you're never going to win.

Next it was Decor Irlandais.
The market moves this morning encouraged me to switch to him - and I was feeling pretty pleased with that decision as he breezed past Keen On (my original fancy), rounding the home turn.

He still had to catch Shan Blue, but as he drew alongside approaching the last, he looked by far the most likely winner (traded at 1.25 in running).

However, he didn’t have much left in the tank - and ultimately couldn’t withstand the late challenge of Mossy Fen.
It didn’t feel quite as bad as Hold the Note - but is was still a real sickener…

Echiquier was the final tip to run - and he ran a fair race without really looking likely to win.
Ultimately, he finished third - but that was flattering, as 2 falls at the final flight gifted him 2 places…

As for the Mentions, then Kimberlite Candy was the one who got away…

I would have liked to tip him this morning - but wanted 6/1.
I had no trouble securing that price on BF - but is was never available with the bookies.
It’s such a frustrating situation.
I’ve been caught out by it 3 or 4 times already this season and I don’t know how to combat it.
I could just tip at BSP - but that’s hard to do when you’ve no idea what price you will end up with.
As I said this morning, it’s an area I will need to give serious thought to…

As for the other Mentions:
Then Top Notch had a rare off day - and could only finish third to Frodon (who was entitled to beat him - if fully wound up).
Less surprisingly, Walt also had an off day (enigmatic horses tend to do that !).
The irritating aspect of his race, was that it as won by Fingerontheswitch.
I tipped him at a big price, over the Christmas period - but he was withdrawn on account of the ground.
Having watched him hack up in a better race today, you have to feel he would have gone very close in that race.
Finally, Doc Penfro was another one who went very close at Warwick.
In fact, jumping the last, he looked to have the race won (he traded at 1.1 in running !). But as with Hold the Note and Decor Irlandais, earlier in the afternoon, he was run out of it close home.

I honestly don’t think I’ve had many more frustrating/painful tipping days :(

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 11th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It was nice to have a few days off, following the manic Christmas/New Year period.
It’s also nice to be back in action today - a win:win situation :)

More than that, I was pleasantly surprised by how well todays fields have stood up at both Kempton and Warwick - and there has been no overnight rain !

On the flip side however, most of the races look fiercely competitive, and finding an angle isn’t easy.
Also, there will be some guesswork required with regard to precisely how much the drying ground, has dried up !

More than that, the early markets were incredibly fragile...

It feels as if it’s getting harder and harder to tip early, as the slightest whiff of support for anything, sees the price crash.
It feels like an area that I am going to have to look at.

Anyway, that’s for another day: for today, I’ve got 4 tips - 2 issued early and 2 late.

Making the calls was not easy - so let’s hope I’ve got them right !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the days other big races.


Kempton

2:05

The defection of Altior, has robbed this race of much of its interest.
He was originally planned to run, but Nicky Henderson wasn’t completely happy with him in the middle of the week.
That was interpreted as him being a NR - and he was removed from the betting.
The BHB got involved - and Henderson then said he wanted to run the horse !
However the damage had been done and he was scratched from the race.
All a bit of a farce !
In his absence, his stablemate Top Notch, looks the most likely winner - though it’s debatable whether he warrants being so short in the betting.
Officially, he is rated 7lb inferior to Frodon - and that one should be well suited by todays test.
However, he’s not found his form this season - hence the lack of market interest.
If Frodon is on his ‘A’ game, he should win - but I suspect he is being trained to peak at Cheltenham.
Even if that is the case, Top Notch is not guaranteed to beat Kauto Riko.
There was less than a length between them last time at Huntingdon, and on 2lb better terms, Kauto Riko should take his revenge.
I don’t think he will - but I’m not prepared to bet on it.
In short, whilst theoretical arguments can be made against Top Notch - and he is undoubtedly too short a price, I think he will find a way to win…

2:40

This doesn’t look the best ever renewal of the Lanzarote hurdle - and I think it is worth taking a risk on Echiquier.
Ex. French, he hacked up on his UK debut in a small novice hurdle at Hexham in October - and was then pitched in to the grade 2 Persian war hurdle at Chepstow.
The fact connections were prepared to aim him so high, on his second outing, suggests his is well thought of - and whilst he could only finish fifth, time has shown that it was a particularly strong renewal.
Thyme Hill won the race, with Fiddleronthehoof, second.
They have each won a grade 1 novice event over the past couple of weeks and are now close to the top of the market for novice events at the Cheltenham festival.
On his next run, Echiqiuer contested a very strong handicap hurdle at Haydock.
Again, he finished out of the money (this time, in sixth place) - but he ran really well, until his stamina let him down in the last half mile.
Dropped half a mile in trip - and back in novice company - he was well fancied for his next run at Southwell.
However, he didn’t perform that day and was well beaten.
He was badly hampered at one point in the race and that could have contributed to his defeat - though it is more likely that he simply didn’t handle the heavy ground.
We have to be prepared to forgive him that run - but at a decent price and on better ground, I think he is worth a risk today.
Certainly, he doesn’t look badly handicapped now, on a mark 6lb lower than he started the season on - and I suspect he will get his ideal conditions…
Unsurprisingly, in a race of this nature, plenty of others can be given a chance - though I think Notre Pari is far too short a price - and wouldn’t consider Burrows Edge, for the same reason.
Debestyman is of some interest - but not as much as Dan Skeltons 2 runners: Northofthe wall and Gortroe Joe. In fact, I was quite tempted to split stakes on the last named - and he is certainly worth a saver (unofficially !).
The other one that catches my eye at a huge price, is Vinnie Dev - and he too may be worth a small unofficial saver.

3:15

I like Walt best in this, but I can’t quite bring myself to tip him at 5/1…
He’s an enigmatic character - who given the right conditions, is quite capable of winning a race of this nature.
In all probability, he will get his conditions this afternoon - 3 miles, a flat track and decent ground - so he should run his race.
That said, if the ground is riding tacky, it won’t suit him - and he does face at least a couple of dangerous looking opponents.
Chief amongst them is On the Blind Side.
He could be a class better than his rivals - and whilst he’s had issues with his jumping, todays small field should help.
King of the Realms is another of interest; whilst War Sound is handicapped to win - if recapturing his form and staying the 3 mile trip.
The final one of interest, is Fingerontheswitch.
He’s a stablemate of Walt - and like him, has a marked preference for decent ground.
He may not be quite up to this class - but he will feel like he’s running loose, with just 9st8lb on his back (including his jockeys allowance).
On balance, I feel it’s a race best watched…


Warwick

1:50

I want to take a chance on Hold the Note in this.
I tipped him on his most recent outing, in a handicap chase at Kempton on Boxing day.
He was really unlucky that day, as he was stopped in his tracks, when Roll Again fell in front of him.
It was too far out to say whether he would have won - but he was still going very nicely and it’s not hard to think he would have been involved in the finish.
Hold the Note is rated just 133 - and you wouldn’t expect that to be high enough to take a grade 2 event.
However, this looks a weak renewal - with the highest rated only 142. Furthermore, if Hold the Note had won at Kempton (or even gone close), he would be rated around 140 himself…
Of his opponents, then favourite Highest Sun looks the most dangerous.
That said, he too ran (and got beaten !) in a handicap on his penultimate outing - and his profile looks very similar to that of Hold the Note.
The same is true of Two for Gold: whilst Ardlethen has had his limitations exposed.
Roll Again is once again in opposition - but the big worry with him is his jumping (Warwick is a tricky track to jump round).
Hold the Note is no certainty, that's for sure. However, in an open race, he looks to have as good a chance as all of his rivals - and represents a bit of value at around 8/1.

2:25

This looks a really open race and it was my intention last night, to take a chance on Keen On.
He was a 7/1 shot then - and I felt that under-estimated his chance.
However, he has been very well backed this morning - and his current price of 4/1, strikes me as a bit too short (accepting that there is a fair amount of guesswork involved).
By contrast, Decor Irlandais, opened at 3/1 last night - which I felt was too short.
However, he has drifted to 7/1 this morning, which strikes me as a price worth taking a risk at !
In terms of the case for Decor Irlandais, then he is rated at least 10lb superior to all of his rivals (which probably explains why he opened up so short in the betting).
In truth, that rating does look a little suspect - but he’s only run 5 times over hurdles, so it’s hard to get a proper handle on him.
Certainly he was massively impressive when cutting down and cantering all over Mercian Prince, last time at Catterick.
Again, it’s hard to be sure what that form amounts to - but he gave 9lb to a 138 rated chaser and beat him 2 lengths, hard held.
At face value, that sets a decent standard for the race…
It is possible that one or two of his rivals may be able to surpass it - but non of them are guaranteed to do so.
All of the other runners have plenty of scope for improvement - but if Decor Irlandais repeats the form of Catterick, they will need to run to a mark in excess of 150, to beat him.
That might happen - but it might not - and at odds of 7/1, I think it is worth taking a risk that it won’t…

3:00

I’m struggling to see beyond the top 2 in the market for this: The Conditional and Kimberlite Candy - but equally, I’m also struggling to see any value in respective prices of 7/2 and 5/1, in a 14 runner handicap.
Of the pair, I slightly favour Kimberlite Candy - but mainly because I think todays extreme test will suit him best.
He’s a proven stayer, so the 3m5f trip will be no problem to him.
He also contests the race on the back of a really good run in the Becher chase - and with connections knowing that he needs to win this race, if he is to have any chance of competing in the Grand National (which you have to think is the ultimate aim).
At 6/1, I would probably have taken a chance on him - but 5/1 is a bit too short…
The Conditional is a different beast in so much as he’s not guaranteed to stay the trip - but if he does, he will probably win.
He ran a mighty race last time out in the Ladbroke trophy when finishing second - and even off a 5lb higher mark today, doesn’t look badly handicapped.
My main issue with him is that he travelled so well in that race, I wonder whether he will stay todays marathon trip.
At a price, he would undoubtedly be worth a risk - but 7/2 is too short…
Of the others, then Le Breuil has a theoretical chance - however, a win for him (and the subsequent rise in the handicap) would probably scupper his Grand National chances - and I suspect his season is being geared around that race…
Aside from those 3, it is hard to make a concrete case for anything - whilst accepting that in a race of this nature, most of the runners have a chance, if at the top of their game.

3:15

This looks an impossible puzzle to solve…
It’s a qualifier for the Pertemps series - the final is run at the Cheltenham festival - and they are notoriously difficult races to solve.
The issue is that any horse that finishes in the first 6 of a qualifier, can run in the final.
Often, that’s the sole objective of connections.
Furthermore, a number of them will only want to finish sixth ! - as that’s highly unlikely to result in a ratings rise, which might negatively affect their chance of winning the final.
That said, in order to run in the final, a rating of around 134 tends to be needed.
So horses rated below that mark, will be trying to win (or at least get placed), so that their rating is raised, thereby increasing their chance of getting a run in the final.
Suffice to say, the sub-plots can be a little distracting !
Bearing in mind the above, the race is most likely to be won by Tedham - or one of the horses below him in the handicap.
Whilst those above him, will ideally be looking to place 4th, 5th _ or 6th !
In terms of the most likely race winner, then the ‘short’ list consists of Tedham, Igor, SIlver Sheen, Doc Pentro and One for the Team (plus possibly Its all Guesswork).
The trouble is, they occupy most of the places at the head of the betting.
I can’t see a strong angle for any of the 6 main contenders.
Jessie Harrington bringing over Silver Sheen, strikes me as unusual - though whether he will be good enough to win, is a different matter.
One for the Team is a worthy favourite, based on form - but no value.
Igor is the value option - but may not quite be good enough.
Doc Pentro is possibly the most interesting - with Ben Jones travelling up from Kempton to ride.
If I were to have a bet in the race, it would probably be on him - but the contest is too much of a minefield, to tip in…


Fairyhouse

2:10

This is a rare beast in Ireland, in that it’s a very valuable chase, run over 2 miles (2m1f to be precise !).
The vast majority of the valuable chases run in Ireland are over 3 miles - or further.
Maybe not surprisingly, there is invariably a shortage of decent 2 mile chasers, so races such as this, don't tend to take quite as much winning.
I tipped R’evelyn Pleasure last season, when he ran in the Red Rum chase at the Aintree Grand National meeting.
He ran poorly that day - and for no obvious reason - but these things happen, particularly when horses have travelled a long way.
His two subsequent runs last season, suggested that his Aintree run was a one off - and he very much caught my eye on his seasonal debut, 11 days ago.
That was in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown, when he travelled really well and looked like winning, turning in.
Ultimately, he was run out of things close home - but you couldn’t have asked for a better return to action.
I suspect that outing was designed to set him up for this race - and it showed he is in very good form.
He’s still only 8, so there is also every chance that he is still improving - and the experiences he gained last season, should stand him in good stead this afternoon.
Of his rivals, then plenty can be given chances - but nothing really stands out.
In fact, the one I find most interesting, is Vaniteux.
He has been sent over from England by Sophie Leach - which is an unusual move.
Like R’Evelyn Pleasure, he is a few pounds out of the handicap - but I doubt that will make much difference.
He can be backed at 33/1 - and is worth an unofficial saver at that price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Kemp 2:40 Echiquier 0.5pt win 14/1
War 1:50 Hold the Note 0.75pt win 8/1
War 2:25 Decor Irlandais 0.75pt win 7/1
Fairy 2:10 R'Evelyn Pleasure 0.5pt win 10/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:05 Top Notch (P )
Kemp 3:15 Walt (O )
War 3:00 Kimberlite Candy (O )
War 3:35 Doc Penfro (O ))
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Review of the day

I couldn’t find much that I fancied this morning, at an acceptable price - and as a consequence, ended up with tips in just 2 of the races.

It’s a problem I’m encountering more and more: the longer you give the markets to mature, the less ‘value’ bets there are (at 'early' prices).

I’m not sure how best to overcome it - but I’m certainly giving it plenty of thought !

In terms of the days tips, then 2 of them ran in the big handicap on the Cheltenham card - and one of them ran very well.

In fact, turning for home, I did think that Ex Patriot was going to win.
It looked to me as if Derek O’Connor felt he had the leader covered - whilst everything in behind was coming under pressure.

However, Ex Patriot wasn’t going quite as well as I hoped - and it soon became apparent that he was going to struggle to make it to the front.
Worse than that, a couple of those behind were staying on…

O’Connor flung the horse at the last - but he didn’t get the jump he was hoping for and Ex Patriot was beaten.

In a pulsating finish, Oldgrangewood got the better of Saint Calvados and Lalor. The track record of the winner, now looks a fair bit better !

Ballyhill was the other tip in the race - but he was a late drifter and came under pressure relatively early.
I think it’s safe to say that he remains out of sorts…

Peter the Mayo man was the only other tip on the day - and he too came up short.

In fairness the race panned out as I expected, with a really strong pace setting it up for the finishers.

It did briefly look at if he might get involved - but he found little for pressure after jumping the second last.

There were plenty of Mentions on the day (due in part, to me not being able to get the prices to enable me to tip) and it looked as if Protektorat had got them off to the perfect start, when he got the better of a tight finish, in the opener at Cheltenham.
However, following a long stewards enquiry, he was thrown out for causing interference to the runner up.
That struck me as a very strange decision. You see finishes like that every day of the week, and nothing ever happens.
Connections of Protektorat are right to feel aggrieved - and I can understand their decision to appeal.
The fitting of cheek pieces had an effect on Singlefarmpayment - they made him run a bit slower !
To be honest, it’s impossible to know what to do with him - another trainer would be all I could suggest (I could suggest something else - but I won’t !)…
Champ should have won the Dipper - but he fell at the second last, thereby presenting the race to Midnight Shadow.
In the 3 mile hurdle, Goodbye Dancer looked to be coming to win the race, when he took a horrible looking fall at the final flight - it was that kind of day.
Whilst Roksana did run really well in the Relkeel hurdle - but wasn’t quite good enough.
That was almost exactly what I expected - I just didn’t expect it to be Summerville Boy who beat her.
Over at Musselburgh, Copper West never featured in the handicap chase - which was a bit surprising, given his consistent record.
Finally, Black Buble also didn’t feature at Fakenham - but yet again, I would be prepared to forgive him ('Cliff Horse' alert !).
The ground looked softer than he would have wanted, but he travelled nicely at the back of the field.
However, the race got very messy over the final couple of flights and he was never positioned to mount a challenge.
Again, he will be dropped a pound for the run - and I’m getting a good idea of what he needs (quick ground, good pace, long straight).
Given the right conditions, he is definitely capable of winning…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 1st

There are 7 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Musselburgh, Fakenham, Exeter and Catterick in the UK - plus Fairyhouse and Tramore in Ireland.

It’s fair to say that it’s a busy old day !

Cheltenham obviously host the feature meeting of the day (when do they not ?!); but most of the supporting cards, contain something of interest…

Musselburgh, in particular, host a couple of very decent races - both of which will be covered by terrestrial TV; whilst the Gold Cup winner, Al Boom Photo, reappears at Tramore (as he did last season).

There's also a very interesting eye catcher, running at Fakenham.
I managed to tip Black Buble last time, when he ran well at Newbury - and I would have liked to tip him again today.
However, it's a weak market -  and he’s been well backed this morning.
At 6/1, in a 12 horse race, where cases can be made for a few, I just can’t see any value...

I did manage to tip a couple in the big handicap at Cheltenham, however - along with one at Musselburgh.

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on most of the days other big races…


Cheltenham

12:15

I don’t really get why Redford Road is such a short price for this.
Granted, he was a good winner at the December meeting - but that was over 3 miles and on soft ground.
His stamina won him the race that day - and over half a mile less, on faster ground, that’s not going to be happening today.
I guess there’s a chance that he could outclass is rivals - but I think that unlikely…
The problem is figuring out what to take him on with.
I could give most of his opponents a chance - but would struggle to make a solid case for any of them.
The betting suggests that Welsh Saint should be the one - but that is primarily down to connections and the fact that Nico de Boinville has opted for him ahead of Nicky Henderson’s other runner (Grand Mogul).
If forced off the fence, I would go with the Dan Skelton trained Protektorat.
He steps out of handicap company - and up half a mile in trip: but I think the extra distance will suit - and he may be a better horse for the experience of running in a handicap.
It’s hard to know what price represents ‘value’ - but 5/1 in a 6 horse race seems fair enough…

12:50

When I first looked at this race, I was pretty sure it was between Cogry and Singlefarmpayment - but I’m not quite so sure now !
They’ve had numerous battles in the past - and invariably, Cogry comes out on top.
That was the case when they met last month - and whilst Singlefarmpayment is 4lb better off today, for a 3 length beating - that probably won’t make much difference.
What might make a difference to Singlefarmpayment, is the application of first time cheek pieces - and quicker ground - but then again…!
Certainly, if they can get his head right - in perfect conditions - Singlefarmpayment will win this. The question is whether cheek pieces will be able to do that…
At a price, he would be worth a risk - and I see no way that he will be out of the 3 - I’m just not prepared to risk him, at less than 5/1…
The issue with Cogry, is that everything went perfectly for him last time - and that may not happen today.
He is also 4lb higher in the weights - and won’t hugely appreciate drying ground.
He has the heart of a lion, so is still likely to be hard to beat - but he has to be vulnerable…
If my initial assessment was wrong and this isn’t a 2 horse race, then I have to find one to oppose them with…
In truth, nothing appeals massively - though Commodore looks quite interesting, assuming he copes with the ground.

1:25

Though it disappoints me a little, I’m struggling to see beyond Champ in this.
He overcame significant adversity to win at Newbury last time - and that’s invariably the sign of a good horse.
Purely on the weights, there should be little between him and Deyrann de Carjac today - as the latter is 5lb better off for a 6lb beating.
Furthermore, Deyrann will be well suited by the drying ground,
However, I really don’t think he will be suited by the Cheltenham hill - and I expect Champ to power past him, after the last.
Deyarann could be worth an in-running trade (as he jumps and travels really well) - but I can’t see him coming home in front.
If Champ is to be bustled up, it is more likely to be by Midnight Shadow.
According to the book, he should have Champs measure - but I don’t think that will be the case.
I could see him running very well though - and probably finishing second.
Assuming he jumps round cleanly - and doesn’t befall any ill luck - then I expect Champ to win.

2:00

This is a cracking race - and I think it’s worth taking 2 against the field…
The first is Ex Patriot.
I have to be honest, I expected him to go under the radar - but that’s certainly not been the case !
I’m not sure what has caught people’s attention - though I suspect he may drift close to the off…
Anyway, what caught my eye, is the fact that he’s trained by Ellmarie Holding and ridden by Derek O’Connor.
Regular readers will know the esteem in which I hold Mr O’Connor - but I’m also a massive fan of the trainer.
She’s only has a small string - but she is more than capable of getting the best out of them.
Ex Patriot is her best horse - and he has some good form.
Certainly, his last time out third to subsequent grade 1 winner, Battleoverdoyen, reads well - and suggests that a mark of 147 should be within his compass.
Trip and ground should be ideal - and he also has decent course form (he finished 4th in the 2017 Triumph hurdle).
With the main man doing the steering (as opposed to spending New Years day at Fairyhouse or Tramore !), I think he will prove hard to beat…
Despite that, I also want Ballyhill on side.
He won this race 2 years ago - and finished third in, last year.
He raced off a mark of 144 then - so off a mark of 137 today, he clearly has a very good chance from a pure handicapping perspective.
He’s shown little in his 2 runs so far this season - but I suspect he will bounce back to form today, in ideal conditions.
If he does, then he will undoubtedly go very close…
Plenty of the others can be given a chance - though there is a niggle over them all.
Kalashnikov will have a big job on, giving a lot of weight to some very decent rivals: whilst OK Corral could get caught out by a significant drop in trip.
Conversely, Magic Saint has stamina to prove; whilst Saint Calvados would prefer softer ground and Oldgrangewood is yet to run well at Cheltenham.
In the circumstances, I’m hopeful that splitting stakes between Ex Patriot and Ballyhill, will produce a positive result.

2:35

This looks a near impossible race to call, with all of the runners having a potential angle - but also at least one, significant question mark…
Might Bite is the class horse in the race - but this looks like a confidence building exercise - and he’s hardly thrown in off a mark of 160.
I’m guessing Beware the Bear is running in this, in order to protect his chase mark, until the Grand National weights are released.
That won’t stop him from winning - but it hardly adds to his case.
The Jam Man is quite interesting - though it would be quite difficult to support a horse who won off a 30lb lower mark at Southwell, just 4 runs back !
Skandibourg is the obvious one, under his feather weight.
He was impressive when winning last time at Aintree - though this will be much tougher.
That said, if I was to get involved with the race, it would probably be with one of Fergal O’Brien’s 2 runners.
Goodbye Dancer won really well on his stale debut last time - and must have a chance today, even though he is effectively 10lb higher in a better race.
That said, I slightly prefer the chance of his stable-mate, Ask Dillon.
He made his seasonal debut just 5 days ago - so it’s surprising to see him even  running in the race.
The fact he is, I would view positively - and the early support for him is interesting.
I couldn’t back him at the current 7/1, but in a race where no result would surprise me, I think he is just about the most likely winner.

3:10

I was half tempted to take a chance on Roksana in this - even though I don’t think she should be good enough to win !
There are question marks over all of her rivals - whereas there is no reason why she won’t run her race.
Track, trip and ground are all fine for her - and I suspect she will come into the race in good form
Assuming nothing goes awry, then she will go very close - but she is beatable…
If she is beaten then Janika looks the one most likely to inflict the defeat.
On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race - the issue with him, is that all of his form is over fences.
If he proves as good over hurdles, he should win - but we don’t know whether that will be the case.
That said, there is also a chance that Emitom will prove different class to todays rivals.
He was very good as a novice - and is expected to be even better this season.
However, this is his seasonal debut, so there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The late market will probably give the best guide on his chance.
I would be against the other 3 runners, for various reasons - but that’s reflected by their odds.
In summary, Roksana is the winner by default - but it won’t be a great surprise if either Janika or Emitom manage to beat her.
In the circumstances, she makes limited appeal at 7/2…


Musselburgh

1:40

The first of 2 good races on the Musselburgh card - but it looks a minefield !
On the form of his last time out second at Aintree, Fixed Rate looks the one to beat.
He was no match for Sammy Bell in that race - but the winner is seriously progressive and Fixed Rate was making his seasonal debut.
I would expect him to have come on for that run - and even though he’s been raised 4lbs, he still looks the most likely winner.
That said, the market agrees with that statement - so in such an open race, I’d be inclined to look elsewhere in the hunt for ‘value’…
At roughly double the price, Copper West could be the one.
He only finished fifth on his most recent outing - but that was in a particularly strong race (also at Aintree).
Prior to that, he won a very decent contest at Market Rasen.
Todays race looks no stronger than that one - so off a mark just 4lb higher, Copper West appears to have every chance.
It also adds to his case that he is trained by Tom George, whose string has been in excellent form over the Christmas period.
It’s also the only runner that George sends to the Scottish track (quite a journey from Gloucestershire, on New Years day !).

2:15

Dan Skelton also only sends one runner to Musselburgh, from his Warwickshire base (maybe Tom Georges horse box is picking it up, on the way past !) - and I think Peter the Mayo Man is worth siding with…
He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Newbury, when he travelled strongly behind the leaders.
He didn’t get home that day - but the 2m4f trip would have stretched him.
He also didn’t get home last time at Cheltenham - but the ground would have been too soft for him that day.
As a consequence, of those runs, Peter the Mayo Man now finds himself on a mark of just 125 - and he can do damage off that.
In fact, he won a handicap hurdle in 2016 off a mark of 130 - and that earned him a rating of 142. It’s true that he is now 10 - but he is lightly raced and I suspect that most of the ability remains…
What he needs, is a strongly run 2 miles on decent ground - and that is precisely what he will get this afternoon.
In fact, this race could turn into a real burn up - with confirmed front runners, Snookered, L’Inganna Felice and Aristo de Plesis in opposition.
That should suit the hold up horses - and whilst there is no doubt that Ashington is potentially very well handicapped, he could easily be caught out by his inexperience in a race of this nature.
Normal Norman and Sir Chauvelin are 2 others who could take advantage - but so  is Peter the Mayo Man, and at much bigger odds, he is worth a speculative play.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Chel 2:00 Ex Patriot 1pt win 8/1
Chel 2:00 Ballyhill 0.5pt win 12/1 
Muss 2:15 Peter the Mayo Man 0.5pt win 12/1

Mentions
Chel 12:15 Protektorat (S )
Chel 12:50 Singlefarmpayment (S )
Chel 1:25 Champ (P )
Chel 2:35 Goodbye Dancer (Ask Dillon is a NR)
Chel 3:10 Roksana (O )
Muss 1:40 Copper West (O )
Fake 1:10 Black Buble (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions