Daily write-up - Mar 12th (Cheltenham day 3)

Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival.

The action switches to the new course this afternoon - and fresh ground.
There has been a small amount of rain overnight - but I would expect it to be riding a fair bit faster than on the first 2 days.

That said, the new course puts more of an emphasis on stamina (due to its layout) - so the ability to stay a trip, is still required.

Compared to yesterday, todays card has a much better shape for betting - however, this is the point in the week, when my concentration/focus start to really get tested ! (hence me making a slight mess of issuing the tips, this morning !!).

Once again, I’ve not issued many tips - but as with the first 2 days, I’ll be running a live thread in the forum:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-3-td20038.html#a20048

This was well received again, yesterday - and I would expect it to be even better today (as there are more potential opportunities).

Anyway, that’s for later - for now, I’ll offer my early thoughts on the days non-handicap races.


Cheltenham

1:30

The action opens with an absolute cracker: Faugheen v Samcro - the rematch !
2 of the most talked about horses in recent years: the former - because of his achievements - the latter, because of his lack of them !
They clashed at Limerick over Christmas, when Faugheeen came home a convincing winner - and Samcro was a massive disappointment.
Faugheen then followed that up at the Dublin Racing festival, becoming a very rare, 12 year old grade 1 winner.
He really is an admirable horse - but I’ll be a little surprised if this isn’t a step too far for him…
I don’t find it as easy to write off Samro.
Apparently he was wrong at Limerick - and whilst he fell on his previous start at Fariyhouse, I felt he had the beating of Fakir D’Oudaries that day - and that’s top class novice form.
I can see him travelling really well in the race - but when push comes to shove, I do wonder if his jumping will hold up…
Itchy Feet was the original fav for the race (Faugheen has now deposed him) - and he has a very good chance.
It’s certainly not hard to see him winning - and I’ll be surprised if he’s not placed.
The same is true of Mister Fisher - and the ground has come right for him.
That said, this is a deep race.
Melon has finished runner up in a Champion hurdle - and has shown decent form over fences. He looks over-priced at 14/1.
Bapaume is another very interesting runner - if you are prepared to ignore his disappointing effort, last time.
I can also see argument for Annie Mac, Reserve Tank - and even Saint Sonnet - which makes it a hard race to get involved with.
That said, Mister Fisher has been my long term fancy for the race - and I think conditions have come right for him.
As the favourites are likely to be overbet (because of their profile), he will represent value (as will Itchy Feet - and some of the outsiders).
Consequently, I think he is worth a small play - even though it’s a tough race.

2:10

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped both The Storyteller and Tout Est Permis.

I think the former is the likeliest winner of the race (by some margin).
His run last time, had to be seen to be believed !: he’s won at the festival previously - and he’s not badly handicapped.
However, on form (both over hurdles and fences), he doesn’t have much in hand of Tout Est Permis. Therefore, at 4 times the price, I think he is also worth having on side.

I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - but it will mainly be a case of saving on the others that I suggested.

2:50

Frodon and Aso fought out a thrilling finish to this race 12 months ago - and they will go head-to-head again this afternoon.
Frodon got the better of things last year - and there is no real reason why it won’t be the same again this time.
However, whether a repeat of that effort will be good enough to enable him to retain his crown, is a very different matter.
Whilst it was competitive, last years renewal wasn’t a particularly high class - but that’s not the case this time.
Min and A Plus Tard are from the top draw - and Frodon won’t find it as easy to fend them off.
Of the pair, I slightly prefer Min.
He put up a staggering performance when beating Politologue at last seasons Grand National meeting - and if he repeats that effort today, I can’t see him losing.
In fairness, he’s not guaranteed to run to the same level: certainly his 2 runs this season have been below par (despite him winning and finishing second) - but they were both over 2 miles and he steps up 4 furlongs today, which could make all the difference.
There’s little doubt that A Plus Tard will be at his peak. He hacked up in the novice handicap at the meeting last year - and whilst this will be much harder, it did show that he operates well at the course.
A defeat of Chacan Pour Soi last time, suggested that he has the class required to operate at the very highest level - though there is a chance that win may have flattered him, as the runner up was making his seasonal debut.
I could have given Riders onthe Storm a chance - but he was involved in a brutal race, when winning last time, at Ascot - and he will have done very well to recover from that in under 4 weeks.
And whilst I could also give Saint Calvados half a chance, he really shouldn’t be up to beating a peak form Min.
In short, I think this comes down to what shape Willie Mullins has Min in.
If he’s in the same form he was in at Aintree last year, then I think he will prove be too much for A Plus Tard to handle.

3:30

This race is all about Paisley Park.
He was an impressive winner 12 months ago, when he seemed to switch on a turbo and power up the hill !
He’s unbeaten in 2 races this season - and whilst not quite as impressive, his finishing kick clearly remains - and he will undoubtedly have been trained to reach his peak today.
He has nearly a stone in hand of all of his rivals - and whilst it is quite likely he will look in trouble at some point  it’s equally likely that he will find a way to win.
I couldn’t back him at 4/6 in a 15 runner race - but he could only be opposed in hope (or each way !)
Of his rivals, then I’m quite a fan of Summerville Boy - and he ran Paisley Park quite close last time (when I tipped him).
There is a big discrepancy in their odds (he’s 8/1), for what was little more than a length beating - but that race suited Summerville Boy better than todays will, so it’s hard to see how the form will be reversed.
In theory, an argument can be made for Emitom - but I’m not convinced he is good enough.
City Island is a different matter - though he is returning to hurdles having failed over fences, and that’s not an ideal preparation.
His beating of Champ at last years festival is top class form - and if he is spot on (and provided he stays the trip), he really could give Paisley Park something to think about.
Penhill and Apples Jade both look to be horses in decline - and whilst they would have a chance if rediscovering their best form , it would take a leap of faith to support either.
Ronald Pump could be interesting - because he’s a potential improver. That said, he will need to show significant improvement…
L’Ami Serge is always an interesting horse to watch ! - and in theory could be a back to lay option (though people are now wise to him); whilst Lisnagar Oscar could easily out run dismissive odds - and may be capable of rewarding an EW play, if you can get enhanced terms…
In summary, Paisley Park is by far the most likely winner - and City Island is the only one I could see beating him (assuming the fav runs to form).

4:10

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

4:50

This isn’t a race that I’ve got a strong view on - or have spent much time studying (you have to draw a line somewhere!)
Concertista finished second in the race last year - and ran really well last time, when third behind Black Tears at the Dublin Racing Festival.
That one franked the form with big run in yesterdays Coral cup - and it’s hard to see Concertista not at least going close.
Whether she will be good enough to win, is a different matter…
There is a chance that Minella Melody might be different class.
She was very well regarded when running in bumpers - and is unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles, this season.
She beat Colreevy on her most recent run - and that one re-opposes today (and is second favourite). In theory, there shouldn’t be much between the pair - but I would expect Minella Melody to confirm the form.
Nothing much jumps out, away from the head of the market - but in truth, it’s a race which I’m likely to just watch…

5:30

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped Cloth Cap.
At the odds, I think he is the best bet in the race.
I respect all of the runners at the head of the market - but Jonjo is more than capable of getting one spot on for a race like thisc!

Again, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - and I might have a slightly different take on things there (to reflect the current odds on offer).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Chel 1:30 Mister Fisher 0.5pt win 13/2
Chel 2:10 The Storyteller 0.75pt win 5/1
Chel 2:10 Tout est Permis 0.25pt win 20/1
Chel 5:30 Cloth Cap 0.5pt win 20/1
Mentions

Chel 2:50 Min (C ) - best outsider Aso
Chel 3:30 Paisley Park (P ) - best outsider City Island
Chel 4:50 Minella Melody (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Cheltenham handicaps - Day 2

Somewhat ironically, I'm not sure that the matrix method really suits either of todays handicaps - but I'll press on and see what happens...

2:50

This is all about Dame du Compagnie.
I really couldn't be more confident - in a 26 runner minefield of a race !!
Ofcourse the price on her is completely shot - so that needs to be borne in mind.
There is also the issue of luck in-running; worries over the ground - and the possibility that one of her rivals might show much improved form.
Hopefully I've identified the potential big improvers (I've cooled on Stratum) - and I'll save stakes on them

16 units on Dame du Compagnie at 9/2 (88)
2 units on Thosedaysaregone at 14/1 (30)
2 units on Champagne Wells at 14/1 (30)


4:50

The object of the matrix betting is to swing the odds in your favour (by having all of the likely winners on side).
I don't feel confident of doing that in this race - so it's not really a suitable approach.
However, I do think that their could be some 'value' in the short-list, so I'm prepared to spread 8 units across it.

3 units on Thyme White at 12/1 (39)
2 units on Galahad Quest at 25/1 (52)
2 units on Sacchoandvanzetti at 40/1 (82)
1 unit on Clementia at 100/1 (101)

The going at Cheltenham this afternoon, was clearly borderline heavy. There is no rain forecast for the next couple of days, so it will undoubtedly dry out - though that might not make it any easier to get through !

I suspect the ground will be sticky tomorrow - and there will also be the divets from today to deal with.
I expect that stamina will again be more important than speed…


2:50

There’s a huge field for this (26) - but I can’t give many of them a chance.

I strongly fancy the favourite - the tricky bit will be getting an acceptable price !


Dame de Compagnie (6/1) was one of the horses I put up on the ante-post thread in the forum.
That was back on Feb 13th - and at the time, she was a 20/1 shot (NRNB).
I was pretty keen on her then - and I’m even keener now !
She looks to have been layed out for the race - and I’m sure she is very well handicapped.
The only questions in my mind, are: will she cope with the ground ? - and what is the lowest acceptable price in a 26 runner handicap ?!

Stratum (12/1) won the Cesarewitch, under 6 months ago - and has a chance of completing a unique double !
He’s probably not as good over hurdles - but is relatively unexposed, so still has room for improvement.
He’s owned by Tony Bloom - so if he is fancied, he’s likely to be well backed.

Thosedaysaregone (14/1) represents the Charles Byrnes stable - and for that reason alone, needs to be considered.
He was well backed, when he won a good handicap at the Dublin Racing festival, last time - coming with a powerful late run.
He’s significantly higher in the handicap tomorrow - and has an extra 5 furlongs to cover.
However, he could be capable of overcoming both…

Champagne Well (20/1) is still a novice - but he’s a pretty decent one.
He finished second to Thyme Hill back in November - and whilst he’s been beaten twice since, that’s been over 3 miles.
I think he will benefit from the drop in trip tomorrow - particularly considering the ground.


4:50

Of all the handicaps run this week, I will have my least strongest opinion on this one !

It’s restricted to 4 year olds - and so it’s very difficult to gauge form.

Whilst I’m sure plenty of horses have been layed out for it (as is the case with most of the festival handicaps), it has a habit of being won by relative outsiders (apart from last year !)

Just be aware: If I’m not happy with prices tomorrow, I might choose to leave this race alone…


Thyme White (14/1) was decidedly useful on the flat in his native France (ran in a group race).
He’s had 3 runs for Paul Nichols - and has improved with each one.
He was runner up in the first 2 - and then won his most recent outing, in the soft at Musselburgh.
Assuming he continues to progress, then he should have a fair chance.

Galahad Quest (25/1) won the juvenile hurdle on trials day, in January.
He was very game that day, getting the better of Night Edition and Gerolamo Cordano.
Both of them re-oppose tomorrow - and at the revised weights, there should be little between the trio.
However, I suspect the Nick Williams trained runner has the greatest scope for improvement.

Sacchoandvanzetti (40/1) won 2 hurdles in the autumn. On the second occasion, he beat Pasley and Tremwedge - and the third placed horse is now rated 129.
That suggests Sacchoandvanzetti could be well handicapped off a mark of 132 (he beat him 5 lengths, giving him 7lb).
He’s only run once since then - disappointing in a grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas, so he will need to bounce back.
However, that’s a possibility - and he’s of some interest at a big price.

Clemencia (50/1) was formerly trained in Ireland by Brendan Duke.
He was a very impressive winner on his second run over hurdles - and was sent off at just 7/1 next time, for a grade 2 contest.
He ran disappointingly in that - and again on his latest start in the grade 1 juvenile contest at the Dublin Racing festival.
He has his first outing tomorrow for Tim Vaughan - and if he can find some improvement, he could also go well, at a big price.

Daily write-up - Mar 11th (Cheltenham day 2)

Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival.

There’s been no overnight rain - and the going description has been changed to ‘soft’ (removing the ‘heavy patches’).
It would be reasonable to assume the ground will therefore be riding a touch quicker than it was yesterday.
However, that may not be the case…!

When wet ground starts to dry, it goes through a ‘sticky’ phase - and I suspect we might see that today !

Unfortunately, such ground suits some horses better than others - and it’s hard to know in advance, which ones will take to it and which ones won’t…

On the plus side - there were never going to be many betting opportunities today.
In fact, I am struggling to think of a more punter unfriendly festival card !

4 of the 7 races have very short priced favs (2 of them are odds on): whilst of the remaining 3, 2 are big field handicaps.
That leaves just one race, in which you would conventionally want to play - but it’s a very hard one to fathom…

As a consequence, I’ve just got one tip on the day - though I do quite fancy it !

Just a quick reminder about the Live thread in the forum:
I ran it yesterday afternoon - and it seemed to be well received (by those who commented !).
This is not a selling exercise - but I gave positive mentions to both Shishkin and Honeysuckle, in the live markets - and I know a few took advantage.
It certainly gives a different dimension, being able to offer views, without worrying about price crashes !
Anyway, if you are interested, here is the link to todays thread:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-2-td19927.html#a19943



Cheltenham

1:30

The runs of Abacadabras and Darver Star yesterday, seriously franked the form of Envoi Allen - and he is very much the one to beat in this.
Unbeaten in 7 runs under rules - he won the bumper at last years festival and has won his 3 hurdle races this season.
The second of those, was the grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse - in which he comfortably accounted for Abacadabras and Darver Star.
That was over 2 miles - but he was stepped up a further 4 furlongs, on his most recent start, when he beat Elixir D’Anay at Naas.
He wasn’t quite as impressive that day - but he still won by nearly 4 lengths - and the runner up enhanced that form, when an unlucky late faller in yesterdays supreme.
In short, Envoi Allen can boast an exceptional level of form - and in all probability, he will only lose this race, if he under-performs.
Ofcourse, that is a possibility - particularly on the likely sticky ground - but it’s not something I would want to bet on.
In terms of what’s likely to chase him home, then despite quite a strong looking field, Sporting John appears by far the most likely.
He’s shown great ability to win his 3 hurdle races to date - and if Envoi Allen weren’t in the field, he would be a worthy favourite.
The Big Breakaway and The big Getaway, have also both shown a lot of potential, however they are likely to be next years horses (both are huge - as their names suggest !) - which might allow Easywork to take third place.
He disappointed on his latest outing - but should be better suited by todays longer trip.
Son of Camas is the one of most interest at really big prices - though he will need to find significant improvement, just to be placed.

2:10

In theory, this is the most attractive betting race on the card - but it looks a minefield !
The 10 runners are separated by only 9lb on official ratings - and whilst it would be a little surprising to see either of the outsiders (Castlebawn West and Aye Right) come home in front, stranger things have happened !
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to discount any of the remaining 8 - which makes taking a stance on the race, quite tricky…
Ignoring the odds, I would make Minella Indo the most likely winner (despite him having the second lowest official rating !).
He won the Albert Bartlett at last years festival, so clearly goes well at the course.
The only issue is - he’s now the race favourite !
Furthermore, he doesn’t have a lot in hand of Allaho - so it would be hard to back him at a short price.
Champ and Copperhead lead the home defence - and whilst victory for either wouldn’t come as a great surprise, neither are bombproof.
Champ is probably the most talented runner in the race - but he sometimes can't be bothered to jump the fences!
Copperhead is a very different beast - the question with him is whether he has sufficient class to win a race of this nature.
At the prices, I would struggle to support any of the 4 mentioned - which suggests there should be ‘value’ in the other 4.
And there probably is - I’m just a little disinclined to support horses when I don’t really fancy them...
I guess one option would be to lay the first 4 in the market - knowing that you’d have at least 3 losers - and 6 others on your side who have half a chance !
If I was forced to just select one for a bet, I’d probably go with Battleoverdoyen.
He disappointed at last years festival (when a short priced fav for the Ballymore) - and he fell last time (again, when a short priced fav) - so he definitely comes with risks attached.
On the flip side, he has masses of ability -and Gordon Elliott has deemed it worth bringing him over.
He’s 14/1 as I type - but if he gets backed down to single figures at the off, I’d be tempted to take the hint.

2:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped Dame du Compagnie - because I think her by far the most likely race winner !

As with yesterday, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - but it will simply be a case of max stake on her - and savers on a few of the possible dangers…

3:30

The late defection of Altior has robbed this race of a good chunk of it’s interest.
The reigning champion would have been looking for his third consecutive win in the race - and should have faced his toughest test to date.
It’s a shame that we won’t get to find out whether he would have been up to the challenge…
In his absence, it now looks like being a match between Defi du Seuil and Chacon Pour Soir - and whilst it is still an intriguing contest, it’s not really a betting medium…
Defi and Chacon actually met at Punchestown, at the back end of last season - when the latter announced himself as a coming force in the 2 mile chasing division.
Prior to that race, he had only run once for Willie Mullins - wining a modest Beginners chase at Naas.
However, a 4 length despatching of Defi, showed that he was a potential star in the making.
Based purely on that run, then todays race shouldn’t really be a contest (Chacon should again win) - however there are reasons for thinking that Defi might be able to reverse the form.
For a start, it was the final run of what had been a tough season for him: whilst he has also looked an improved performer this campaign.
Of the two, I think he is likely to be better suited by the holding ground - and you would always favour the stalker in a 2 horse race !
In truth, it’s an impossible one to call with confidence - I just hope we get to see the showdown run to completion.
Of the others, then Dynamite Dollars looks the most interesting.
He was a very good novice last season - until injury curtailed his campaign.
He made a pleasing comeback behind Altior at Newbury last month, and if he can build on that, he appears the one most likely to follow the principals home.
That said, on the book, Defi doesn’t have much in hand of Politologue - who himself finished second on this race 12 months ago.
Though the fact that Harry Cobden has opted for Dynamite Dollars ahead of Politologue, makes the former even more interesting !
Whether it makes him sufficiently interesting to warrant getting involved, is a different matter - though I may have a small wager on him just in case !

4:10

However you look at this race, Tiger Roll is by far the most likely winner…
He’s won the past 2 renewals (last season by 20 lengths) - and will have been primed for his hat-trick bid this afternoon.
Ofcourse, he’s also won the past 2 renewals of the Grand National - and on official ratings, is over 20lb clear of all bar 2 of his rivals.
I thought he shaped with definite promise on his comeback run over hurdles, last month - and it will be a real shock if he is beaten.
In truth, it looks as if he’s only got 1 rival to beat (plus a tricky course to navigate !) - and if you can get even money about him (which may be possible), then I think it can be argued that it’s a very decent bet…
The potential fly in the ointment, is Easyland.
He was an impressive winner over this course in December - and at just 6 years old, appears the coming force in the discipline.
Certainly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him present Tiger Roll with a real challenge in 12 months time - but with Tiger still at his peak, he will need to be exceptional, if he's going to beat him…
Whilst there are 14 other runners, then assuming there are no slips ups from the big 2, it will be a little surprising if any of them are involved in the finish.
Might Bite is obviously the most interesting of the remainder, on his first try over the banks course.
If he retained his old ability, then he would be a proper challenger for Tiger Roll - but he now looks a shadow of his former self.
Of the the others, then I would maybe nominate Diesel Dallier as the most likely to take third place - but in reality, this is likely to just be a a watching race…

4:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

5:30

This is another race that makes minimal appeal, from a betting perspective.
Appreciate It heads the market and is a very short priced favourite.
There are 2 reasons for that: firstly, he was an impressive winner of the bumper at the Dublin Racing festival - and winners of that race, have a very good record in this contest; and secondly, he is trained by Willie Mullins !
Willie invariably has a particularly strong set of bumper horses - and it would appear that this one sits head and shoulders above his stable mates !
Obviously, I couldn’t back him - but equally, I would be guessing if I put up anything against him…
If I was to try and find a ‘value’ bet in the race, I would probably side with one of Gordon Elliotts runners.
He saddles 3 in the race: Darling Daughter, Queens Brook and Eskylane.
The first 2 are mares - so get an allowance; whilst the third actually finished a place in front of Appreciate It, when both of them made their debut at Fairyhouse in November.
The expectation is that Appreciate It has subsequently made the greater improvement - but that may not be the case (Eskylane has won his only subsequent race).
David Pipe appears to provide the strongest home challengers - but I’m not entirely convinced by either of his runners and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tom Lacey trained Adrimal, do best of the English.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Chel 2:50 Dame du Compagnie 1pt win 5/1
Mentions

Chel 1:30 Envoi Allen (P ) - best outsider Easywork
Chel 2:10 Minella Indo (O ) - best outsider Battleoverdoyen
Chel 3:30 Defi du Seuil (P) - best outsider Dynamite Dollars
Chel 4:10 Tiger Roll (P ) - best outsider Diesel Dallier
Chel 5:30 Appreciate It (P ) - best outsider Eskylane
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Cheltenham handicaps - Day 1

The state of the ground makes me a little nervous about getting too heavily involved, today.
I'd be far happier to commit after watching the first 2 races - but that's not really practical, when you are 'tipping' !
As a consequence, I'll hedge my bets a little with the handicaps (this method lends itself to that).


2:50

I'm torn between The Conditional and Discorama - and did consider tipping both.
However, there isn't much in their prices - and it's a competitive enough race (as you would expect).
No Comment always struck me as a 'saver' (as likely not to complete, as he is to go close); whilst the ground seems to have gone against Cobra de Mai (but I still need to cover him - just in case !).
I'm going to add in Quarenta - who is Harry Cobdens only ride of the day (and for Jonjo - which is particularly interesting)
I am a little worried about Vindication - but at the price, I think he should be opposed.

7 units on The Conditional at 15/2 (59.5)
7 units on Discorama at 8/1 (63)
2 units on No Comment at 11/1 (24)
3 units on Cobra de Mai at 20/1 (63)
1 unit on Quarenta at 33/1 (34)


4:50

As I said in the write-up, Hold the Note is my main fancy in this - and he can be backed at an expectable price.
There's been money for Beakstown - which is interesting, considering the ground.
However, I can only save on him: along with Imperial Aura (price too short) - and Galvin (needs to jump better - but might just do that !)
Knight in Dubai has to be worth a risk at such a big price - even though he is clearly the stable second string.

10 units on Hold the Note at 17/2 (95)
3 units on Imperial Aura at 5/1 (18)
2 units on Galvin at 15/2 (17)
2 units on Beakstown at 12/1 (26)
3 units on Knight in Dubai at 33/1 (102)

As I mentioned yesterday, I plan to preview all of the Cheltenham handicaps, using the ‘matrix method’.

Producing short-lists the night before, will help reduce the workload for the write-ups (and creating those, 4 days in a row, is always a challenge !).

There are 2 handicaps on each of the first 3 days of the meeting - and 3 on Friday.

There is a chance (quite a strong one !) that I’ll tip in some of the handicaps - in which case, I’ll probably look to do so, early on the race day morning.

Regardless, I will suggest how you could spread 20 units across the short-list, after I’ve issued the write-up (so late on the race day morning).


On a slightly different note: I’ve created a ‘live thread’ in the forum, for day 1:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-1-td19848.html

I’ll update it with random thoughts/observations, relating to the first day.
I’ll do the same for the other 3 days - hopefully it will prove to be of some value/interest…


Cheltenham Handicaps - Day 1

As seems to have been the case all season, the ground for day 1 of the festival, is the big conundrum…

It hadn’t rained for a few days and I’m reasonably sure that - as of this afternoon - it was genuinely soft ground (which would be great !).

However, it is currently raining at Cheltenham - and the expectation is that they will get around 5mm of rain before racing starts tomorrow.

Ofcourse, there is a chance they will get more - or possibly, less !

There isn’t much more rain forecast fro the rest of the week, so hopefully this particular issue will only be with us for 1 day.

That said, with the uncertainty, committing to any tips before tomorrow morning, makes no sense - so don’t expect anything before 9:00 in the morning…


2:50

The main angle with this race, is taking on the favourite, Vindication.

I don’t doubt he’s a good horse - but he has to carry top weight and will be going left handed, when he seems to have a marked preference for right handed.

I think there is more chance of him not completing than there is of him winning.
I’ll be very tempted to place lay him at 2/1 (possibly saving stakes on a win bet, just in case he does outclass his rivals !)

Discorama (8/1) has finished second at the last 2 festivals - and is not badly handicapped on a mark of 148.
His second in a grade 1 last season, gives him an outstanding chance - and whilst he’s not run to that level this season, a recent wind op could see him bounce back to form.
He’ll have no issue, whatever the ground.

The Conditional (15/2) will be hard to keep out of the frame.
He won over course and distance at the October meeting - and then finished second in the Hennessey.
He didn’t seem to stay the extreme trip last time - so dropping back in distance, should suit him.
Again, he won’t might whatever the ground…

No Comment (12/1) was an eye catcher on his first 2 runs this season, over inadequate trips.
On the back of those, he was sent off at just 15/2 for the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He fell in that race - but was still going OK at the time.
He’s a little more speculative - but definitely has a chance.

Cobra de Mai (16/1) would be very interesting indeed - without the rain.
He hacked up over the course last April - and is back down to the same mark, tomorrow.
He’s been a real eye catcher the last twice - and it looks as if connections have been teeing him up for this.
Tongue tie and cheek-pieces are re-applied - and Harry Skelton is back in the saddle.
The big worry is softening ground…



4:50

The right horses look to be at the head of the market for this, which will make things tricky.

That said, there are quite a few I couldn’t fancy - it’s just that the market doesn’t rate them either !

Imperial Aura (11/2) has been targeted at this race - and it’s hard to see him not going close.
He finished second in a very strong handicap over course and distance last time - and the 7lb rise he got, ensured he was high enough rate to run tomorrow.
He previous run against Pym, also reads well - and he should have no issue with the ground (however it may ride).

Galvin (7/1) also looks to have been targeted at the race.
He finished sixth in the grade 1 Ballymore hurdle at last years festival - and that suggests he is reasonably handicapped, off a mark of 142.
His 3 runs over fences this season, have all been about getting experience, whilst ensuring he wasn’t handicapped out of tomorrows race.
His stamina isn’t completely proven - but the main issue, is his inexperience.
I’m sure he has the raw talent to go very close.

Hold the Note (15/2) is an improving horse.
I’ve tipped him on his last 2 runs - and he’s been very unlucky not to collect, on both occasions.
Tomorrows trip should be perfect for him - and whilst he’s maybe a few pounds higher in the handicap than ideal, I suspect he’s capable of rating a fair bit higher yet.

Beakstown (16/1) is yet another who looks to have been targeted at this race.
Like Galvin, he ran in last years Ballymore hurdle - though didn’t perform quite as well.
Again, as with Galvin, his 3 chases this season, have been about gaining experience, whilst not messing up his handicap mark.
The main issue with him, is that he would prefer decent ground (unlike Galvin !).

Knight in Dubai (33/1) was my original fancy for the race !
However, it would appear that the Skeltons prefer the chances of Beakstown.
Unlike him, Knight in Dubai will have no issue with rain softened ground - and he looked a natural over fences, on his first 2 starts this season.
I’d even be prepared to forgive him his defeat last time (in desperate ground).

Daily write-up - Mar 10th (Cheltenham day 1)

Day 1 of the 2020 Cheltenham festival.

I wasn’t completely convinced that it would survive the recent biblical weather - or the coronavirus outbreak - but it looks at if it’s going to !

That said, the weather has managed to add a little twist to the story: there were 4mm of rain overnight, so we are left guessing (to an extent) over the state of the ground.

Ofcourse, it’s a familiar story.
Barely a weekend has passed this season, without me having to spend as much time studying the weather forecast, as the fields for the big races.
If the tipping ever gets too much, I might turn my hand to meteorology, instead !

As I suggested would be the case, I’ve gone very light on the tips.
Partially because of the uncertainty over the ground - but also because the racing is so competitive.
Whilst I’m sure I can find a load of great bets, I’m less confident that I can find a load of winners !

My plan this week, is just to officially tip, what I consider to be the best bets on the day.
I’ve no doubt there will be a lot of frustration over what might have been - but I suspect that would happen however I chose to handle things !

One other thing:
I’m not going to produce any ‘reviews of the day’ during the festival.
Cheltenham week is always very hard going (for me !) - and I’m not sure the reviews add much value (particularly if I’m not tipping very much).
They take me about an hour to produce - and I suspect that time would be better spent studying (or checking out the weather forecast !).

I’m also committed to posting on the Live threads - and simply, there are only so many hours, and so much I can do…

Anyway, enough of that - and on to my previews for the day 1 races.


Cheltenham

1:30

There is a very strong field assembled for the opening race of the meeting - and I suspect the winner will prove to be a very good horse.
However, figuring out which one it will be, is not an easy matter..!
I could give a chance to the top 8 in the betting - and generally, the market has them positioned about right.
I thought yesterday, that I might be tipping Abracadabras - but his price has contracted markedly (from 6/1 to 7/2).
The suggestion is that he is well fancied - and I can completely understand that.
I’d make him just about the most likely winner of the race - though softening ground, won’t help with his slightly suspect stamina (nor will the Cheltenham hill).
He’s a classic ‘back to lay in-running’ - as he will travel strongly through the race. However, his price is now too tight for me to consider tipping him.
Asteron Forlong and Shishkin are the 2 most obvious dangers: though the former has a tendency to jump to the right (not ideal on a left handed track !); whilst the latter still has a fair bit to prove (but could easily be top class).
I have a few doubts about Chantry House; whilst Fiddleronthehoof could have been flattered by his last time out win on exceptionally heavy ground.
I’d be less keen on supporting either of those 2.
Captain Guiness is a very interesting outsider - if he settles: whilst I could also see Edwardstone running a really big race, provided the ground isn’t too soft.

2:10

This is another very strong race - but I’m prepared to get involved with it, because I think Esprit du Large represents good value.
He’s probably not the most likely winner of the race - but he has a good chance - and that chance is under-estimated by his current odds.
As many of you will be aware, I put him up on the ante-post thread in the forum (so he’s been on my radar for a while !).
That was on the back of him winning the grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown in December.
I was really impressed with him that day, as he beat a good field, on what was only his third run over fences.
He’s clearly a horse who is improving fast - and I like the fact that he has been targeted at this race, since that point.
I also like the fact that he is a horse who gets ridden patiently.
The downside of that, is that he is a hostage to fortune (as Kalashnikov showed in this race 12 months ago !) - but there is a surfeit of pace in todays race and I’m sure that sitting off it, will prove to be the right tactic.
Many of his rivals can be given a chance - and a lot will depend on how the race pans out.
I probably see Fakir D’oudaries as the main danger - even thought he should have his work cut out to beat Notebook !
Fakir is an immaculate jumper - and round Cheltenham, that’s should prove a real asset.
Brewinupastorm and Rouge Vif, are 2 others who I could see running very well - but in truth, I would struggle to eliminate many.

2:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly…

3:30

This is without doubt an exceptionally open renewal of the Champion hurdle !
There are 17 runners - and at least 15 of them can be given a chance (and I wouldn’t totally dismiss the other 2 !).
It could well end up a race that is won by an ability to handle the ground; tactics;  jockey decisions or simply, luck in-running !
Epatante heads the betting, because she has the greatest potential.
There are numerous question marks over her (ground, course, field size) - but she has more untapped potential than her rivals.
It’s a similar situation with Pentland Hills. He won last years Triumph hurdle - but has appeared not to finish his 2 races this season. A breathing op may have sorted that out - but then again…
At their respective prices, it would be hard to side with either of them.
That said, it’s hard to find anything to side with !
I put up Cornerstone Lad on the ante-post thread in the forum - and he certainly has a chance of at least placing.
A form case can be made for him; he is the right age; will handle the ground - and can be backed at 33/1.
There will be worse bets - even if I wouldn’t be overly confident about his chances.
Of the others, then I could see both Not so Sleepy and Couer Sublime, outrunning their odds.
The former likes to front run - so could provide a good back-to-lay opportunity; whilst the latter, is a strong traveller (who has also had a wind op) - and he too could be make a good in-running trade.
Last years third, Silver Streak, again has a chance of hitting the frame: whilst Darasso is a very dark one, at a very big price !
In short, it’s impossible to suggest an angle which isn’t very speculative.
I certainly couldn’t get involved with anything in the race at a single figure price - even though one of the market leaders may well win.
I’m happy enough with a small unofficial play on Cornerstone Lad - and maybe a couple of in-running trades.
It will be fascinating to see who does come out on top - and how much more positively the winner is viewed after the race, compared to before !

4:10

The market suggests this is a match between Benie des Dieux and Honeysuckle - and it’s hard to disagree.
The former would have won the corresponding race 12 months ago, if she’d not taken an unlikely looking fall at the final flight.
She’s won her 3 races this season - and comes into this years renewal in even better from than a year ago.
She’s going to take a bit of beating (assuming she stands up, this time !).
That said, in Honeysuckle, she faces a stronger rival than anything she faced last year.
She’s unbeaten in 7 runs over hurdles - winning the grade 1 Irish Champion hurdle , last time.
She wasn’t overly impressive that day - but the step up in trip by half a mile should help her and she’s likely to give Benie a race.
Of the pair, I prefer Benie - but so does the market, so there’s not really a betting angle there.
In fact, the main interest in the race from a betting perspective, is probably trying to figure out who will finish third.
Last years first and second, Rokasana and Stormy Island, are the obvious  candidates.
However, I might be more inclined to take a chance on Lady Buttons.
She finished a well beaten 4th 12 months ago - but under-performed that day.
She’s been in really good form this season and it could be worth taking a chance that she can reverse the form with the 2 who finished in front of her.
However, whether she can get the better of either of the market leaders, is a completely different matter !

4:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped Hold the Note.
That’s because I think him the most likely winner - and he can be backed at an acceptable price.

I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - but he will have 10pts staked on him - and that effectively equates to 0.5pt.

5:30

This race has a history of going to horses with the highest official ratings.
As Lord du Mesnil and Carefully Selected are rated at least 8lb superior to all of their rivals, there is therefore an argument for focusing solely on them…
The 2 have quite different profiles:
Lord du Mesnil has progressed through handicaps this season.
He was rated 115 when he contested his first one in October - and is now rated 38lbs higher (at 153).
That is some improvement - and as the horse will have no issue with the trip or ground, then clearly it’s quite easy to make a case for him.
On the flip side, he’s unproven at the course (or even at a similar course) - and will be having his seventh run of the season, having endured a number of tough races.
In short, his preparation, has hardly been text book !
By contrast, Carefully Selected has always threatened to be a top class horse.
He finished second in the bumper at the 2018 festival - and whilst he missed most of last season, he did still make it back in time to finish third in a grade 1 novice hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
He’s won 3 novice chases this season - and would doubtless have been amongst the market leaders if he had gone for the RSA instead of this.
In short, he has a far more suitable profile for today race.
The main issue with him, appears to be his jumping. He’s a slightly clumsy horse and was a touch fortunate not to fall, last time at Naas.
If he makes a similar mistake today, he’s likely to pay the price…
Outside of the pair, half case can be made for most of the runners - but it’s hard to make a solid case for anything.
As a consequence, I suggested Ocean Cover EW in the forum. At 40/1, with 4 places, he has a fair chance of collecting.
As for the race winner, then my preference is Carefully Selected (by a fair margin) - the question is simply, what is an acceptable price..?
At 5/2, I’d be tempted: at 3/1, I’d definitely play - however his price is currently moving in the wrong direction !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Chel 2:10 Esprit du Large 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 4:50 Hold the Note 0.5pt win 9/1
Mentions

Chel 1:30 Abracadabras (C ) - best outsider Captain Guiness
Chel 3:30 Epatante (P ) - best outsider Cornerstone Lad
Chel 4:10 Benie des Dieux (P) - best outsider Lady Buttons
Chel 5:30 Carefully Selected (P ) - best outsider Ocean Cove
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Review of the day

It was hard not to feel a little irritated by the way things worked out this afternoon…

Part of the reason why I tipped Mortal, was because half of his opponents were out of the handicap - and therefore supposed to be carrying more weight than the handicapper had allotted them (so at a disadvantage).

However, the late defection of top weight, Anibale Fly, saw the weights of all horses raised by 5lb, meaning that the bottom weight, Gun Digger, ran off his correct mark (along with the 3 other horses who were also originally out of the handicap).

It really is like moving the goalpost after you’ve shot !

With 4 ‘P’s from his last 5 runs, it wasn’t a surprise that Gun Digger was an unconsidered 25/1, early this morning - yet his returned SP was 7/1…

In the race itself, Mortal travelled nicely - and when he took up the running from Gun Digger, on the home turn, he looked sure to win (he traded at 1.13).

However Gun Digger then started to battle back - and Mortal began to falter - and it was soon equally obvious that he wasn’t going to be successful !

In fact, he faltered to such an extent, that he was eventually run out of third place - suggesting that he maybe has a physical issue…

The 2 other races that I previewed on the afternoon, didn’t go much better !

Fauguernon was backed in to a scarcely believable 11/4 fav in the handicap hurdle - and whilst the ran OK to finish sixth, he never really looked like winning: whilst over at Huntingdon, 2 of the 3 horses I was keen to oppose, managed to fill the first 2 places in the handicap chase !

All in all, a day best forgotten, I think…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 1st

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Huntingdon and Sedgefield in the UK - plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

Sedgefield passed it’s early morning inspection, so there’s a full set of fixtures taking place (it’s a shame that wasn’t the case yesterday !).
However, the UK racing - both Sedgefield and Huntingdon - isn’t particularly inspiring, and there’s only one race across the 2 meeting which warrants a preview.

Things are a little better at Leoparstown - though it’s hardly a showcase meeting !

There are a couple of race of interest there - and somewhat surprisingly, one of them has even yielded a tip (just a small one, mind !).

Here’s the rationale behind that - along with my thoughts on the two other main races of the day…


Leopardstown

3:35

A little bit like the race I covered at Fairyhouse, last Sunday - this contest has a great shape for ‘matrix’ betting - but it looks a bit of a minefield !

Of the 13 runners, most are relatively unexposed - and therefore, it could easily be won by a horse who puts in a personal best.
That in itself, is fine - but when half the field could do that, it makes finding an angle, tricky !

My short list for the race consists of: Spruced Up, Fauguernon, Filon D’Oudaries and Zambezi Fix.
The last 2 named are both making their handicap debuts and are from big stables.
I would expect the betting to provide a good guide for how they are likely to perform - but if you were to bet in the race without that knowledge, it would be hard not to at least save stakes on them.
The case for Spruced Up is quite obvious (she ran well in a decent race at the Dublin Racing festival) - but she’s been well found in the market - and a price of 11/4 looks too short.
As a consequence, Fauguernon is the one of most interest - from a betting perspective.
He won a big field handicap over the course at the Christmas meeting - and whilst he is 6lb higher in the weights today, that is offset by the claim of Eoin Walsh
He has run twice since that win, without success - but I’m prepared to excuse both defeats.
On the first occasion he was unsuited by the slow pace in a small field maiden (he still finish second); whilst last time out, he ran very creditably to finish 11th in the red-hot Ladbroke hurdle at the Dublin Racing festival.
He was only beaten 11 lengths that day - and ran from 4lb out of the weights.
A reproduction of that form will see him go very close this afternoon…
The question is simply whether he should be a tip - and my main issue with making him one, is the nature of the race (and his price has also crashed !).
As a consequence, he is just a Mention (though a reasonably strong one !)

4:40

Realistically, this was the only race I was ever going to have a chance of tipping in today.
It’s a Grade B handicap - with a decent first prize - and hopefully, a relatively robust market !

Poker Play has been installed the race favourite - and whilst I can understand that, I can’t help feel that a price of 13/8 in a competitive 11 runner handicap, is much too short.
He’s run really well on his last 2 outings: winning the Listowel National in September - and then finishing fourth in Paddy Power chase at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
Both are strong pieces of handicap form - but he’s been raised 10lb as a result - so the handicapper is getting to him…
Just as importantly, he is dropped 3 furlongs in trip today - and for a horse with National ambitions, that's a slightly odd move.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth taking on - and Mortal is the one who appeals most.
Unlike Poker Play he has run very poorly on his 2 outings this season.
He finished last of 5 on his debut behind Getabird at Gowran - and then didn’t do much better when switched to hurdles on his most recent outing, over the Christmas period.
As a consequence, he has questions to answer - but if he can re-find his form of last season, then he is going to take a lot of beating in this.
I tipped him last Christmas when he finished runner up to Delta Work in a grade 1 at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting - and whilst he followed that up by finishing last of 6 at the Dublin Racing festivity, he wasn’t beaten far and that was again a grade 1 event.
His only other run last season, was in the RSA at the Cheltenham festival.
He finished a perfectly creditable fifth in that race: Beaten by 3 top class horses - and Mister Malarky (who won the Betway handicap at Kempton, last weekend).
This therefore boils down to whether Joseph O’Brien has managed to get him back into peak form.
If he has, then I think he will take a bit of beating.


Huntingdon

3:55

This is probably the best race taking place in the UK today (there’s also a class 2 race at Sedgefield).
That said, it’s a 0-125 handicap - which I think says plenty about the quality of the days domestic racing !

It’s rare to see a going description of ‘heavy’ at Huntingdon - but that’s the case today.
Probably as a result, there have been 4 defectors from the original field of 13 - meaning that only 9 will go to post (at most !).

I’ll be a little surprised if either of the Alan King horses (Canelo and Big Chief Benny) relish the underfoot conditions, and therefore feel they can be taken on.
Whilst Ibleo will have his work cut out, to defy a burden of 12st 4lb.

However, that still leave 6 - which is a few too many, to consider playing in the race…

Oscar Wilde definitely has a chance - but he looks too short at 3/1.
Even If I dismiss him on the grounds of price, I am struggling to choose between the other 5 - as whilst they all have a chance, there are also question marks over them…

If forced off the fence, I would probably side with El Presente or Sir Egbert.
The former ran really well on his seasonal debut in November, over todays course and distance.
However, he fell on his next outing, early in December.
The near 3 month absence is a concern - as is his ability to act on heavy ground.
He has the potential to be the best handicapped horse in the race - but whether he will be able to show that today, is open to doubt.
Sir Egbert will be fit enough to do himself justice - and will have no issue with the ground.
The question with him, is whether he will stay the 2m4f trip.
He is a horse who can pull very hard (he wears a hood to help with this tendency) - and if he doesn’t settle, he;s unlikely to get home.
On the plus side, he’s running today on the back of a wind op - and will be wearing a first time tongue tie, and both of those might help him last home.
At the odds available, I’d be more inclined to take risk on Sir Egbert - but it would only be a small one.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Leop 4:40 Mortal 0.5pt win 7/1

Mentions

Leop 3:35 Fauguernon (S )
Hunt 3:55 Sir Egbert (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions