There are 5 NH meetings today: at Uttoxeter, Kempton, Newcastle and Fontwell in
the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.
Years ago, there used to be virtually no
racing, on the Saturday after Cheltenham (this is when it was a 3 day festival
!).
The Midlands Grand National has always occupied that slot - but that was
petty much it !
However, over the past few years, the Uttoxeter card has
grown and evolved - and its undercard now contains a couple of other good
quality handicaps.
More than that, Kempton aslo stage a card for horses
who failed to make the cut for the Cheltenham handicaps.
Again, it started
small - but has grown significantly over the past few years.
As a
consequence, there are now 2 decent meetings - and around half a relatively
dozen big races on the day - not what I really need, after a week studying for
Cheltenham !
More than that, all of the races, have attracted big
fields.
There were precisely 100 hundred declared runners across the days 6
main races.
That gives an average of about 16 a race - not quite at the
Cheltenham handicap level, but not far off !
Anyway, it is what it
is…
The ground is very different at the 2 meetings: it’s officially heavy
at Uttoxeter - but good to soft at Kempton.
I therefore needed to wear 2 form
studying hats !
In truth, I didn’t really have the time last night, to
delve too deeply into a host of handicaps.
I would have liked to apply the
matrix method to a couple of the races - but that just wasn’t
possible.
Ultimately, I found just the 1 tip - at Uttoxeter.
Here is
the rationale behind it - along with some thoughts on the days other main
races.
Kempton
2:05 This
race was originally scheduled to take place last Saturday, at Sandown.
It
tends to be an excellent source of novice chasers for next season - so it’s good
that it’s been saved.
However, it’s going to be a very different race to the
one that would have taken place a week ago.
The going at Sandown last week
would have been desperate: whilst today at Kempton, it will be on the soft side
of good.
Additionally, Kempton is a flat track; whereas Sandown has a steep
uphill finish.
As a consequence, whereas last weeks race would probably have
been a war of attrition - todays race is likely to be more of a speed
test.
That will suit favourite, McFabulous.
He would have been one to
oppose a week ago - but it would be much harder to side against him,
today.
In truth, even if I wanted to, I’m not sure what I would take him on
with.
A week ago, Hurricane Harvey was top of my list - but that was on
account of him relishing deep ground and a stern test.
I think Igor looks
quite interesting, for Nicky Henderson.
He finished just a couple of lengths
behind Sire de Berlais, on his penultimate run - and that form was very well
franked this week !
He should also have no issue with conditions.
The
other one that catches my eye, is Adicci.
He makes his handicap debut for
Jonjo - and whilst he is very hard to assess, I would not be surprised to see
him improve for todays step up in trip.
That said, both are too speculative
to consider tipping, so it has to be a watching race…
2:40
Downtown Getaway looks the one to beat in this.
Highly tried last
season (he ran in a grade 1 event at Aintree), he was a big disappointment on
his seasonal debut at Newbury - but following a wind op, bounced back last time,
to win a strong looking handicap over todays course and distance.
He only won
by a neck that day - and has been raised 5lb for the win. Whilst in theory, that
would appear more than enough - I suspect he has plenty of improvement left in
him.
He will be running today off a mark of 136 - and I suspect he is a fair
bit better than that…
Second favourite, Tamaroc du Mathan, is not as easy to
assess.
He ran fifth last time, in the Betfair hurdle - on only his third run
in the UK.
That’s top class handicap form - and he should still be
competitive from a mark 3lb higher.
However, that was a strange race. There
was a standing start - and a lot of late carnage.
I would question the
reliability of the form…
The rest of the field can be backed at 10/1+ - and
there is nothing that really stands out.
Our Power has a theoretical chance
of reversing form with Downtown Getaway (he finished 3rd to him - and is 3lb
better off for 3 lengths) - but the winner has far more scope.
Smarty Wild is
the other one that catches my eye.
He possibly got stuck in the mud last time
- but prior to that had finished a close up fourth in a very hot handicap at
Sandown.
He may improve for the longer trip on better ground - and could run
in to a place.
3:15 I reckon this would have been a great
race for the matrix method - if I’d had time !
A 20 runner handicap chase -
and there are certainly a few, close to the head of the market, that I’d be
happy to oppose.
On initial inspection, the 2 who interested me most, were
Garde le Victoire and My Way.
I’m a long time fan of the former - and he
appears to be gradually running into form.
The concerns, are whether Kempton
will suit him - and the fact that Dickie isn’t riding him (he’s chosen to go to
Uttoxeter - but more of that, later !).
My Way has been contesting some very
strong races (stronger than this) and will have no issue with the track.
The
issues with him, are that he seems disinclined to win - and Harry Cobden rides
Mercy Mercy Me.
I’d probably put both of them on a short list - but the
doubts stop me from tipping either…
Other possibles for the short list would
include Eamon an Cnoic (I would have to save on him !) and Good Man Pat (very
well handicapped - and things will drop right for him sooner rather than
later).
However, I would need longer to study the race, in order to be sure
I’d not missed an angle (I’m sure one or two of the more fancied runners, must
have a chance !)
Uttoxeter
2:25 When I first looked at this race,
I was quite keen on Cloudy Glen.
He ran really well on his penultimate outing
at Sandown, when chasing home Diese Aba.
He fell last time out at Warwick -
but had been very well backed that day, in a relatively strong race.
I
suspect he is sufficiently well handicapped to win a race - but this looks a
particularly strong contest.
In really isn’t hard to make a case for 6 or 7
of the runners - and that makes it a difficult race to get involved
with.
Cloudy Glen definitely has a chance - but I suspect he also has a bit
of temperament (he ran out, 3 runs back) - so in the circumstances, I can’t
bring myself to tip him.
Of his rivals, then Looks like Murt and Sams
Adventure are the 2 of most interest.
Both are relatively unexposed and could
easily have a few pounds in hand of their marks.
If it turns into a real war,
then Midnight Tune would be very interesting: whilst Over to Sam and Aye Aye
Charlie are both capable of outrunning relatively big
odds.
3:00Just over 12 months ago, Kateson was sent off at
5/4 in a grade 2 novice hurdle at Haydock. That was on the back of an excellent
third placing behind Champ in the grade 1 Challow hurdle at Newbury.
The
second favourite for the Haydock race, was Lisnagar Oscar…
Roll on a year -
and what a difference !
In the week in which Champ won the RSA and Lisnagar
Oscar was a surprise winner of the Grade 1 stayers hurdle at Cheltenham; Kateson
gets to run off a mark of 135 in a class 2 handicap at Uttoxeter !
Ofcourse
the reason that Kateson is running in such a relatively modest contest, is
because he has subsequently been very disappointing.
In fact the last time he
really showed his form, was in the race won by Champ.
Part of the reason for
that, is undoubtedly because Kateson has a marked preference for soft ground -
something which he has skilfully managed to dodge on most of his outings since
then ! (no mean feat, considering the weather this past year)
In fairness,
that wasn’t the case on his most recent outing - when he simply ran
disappointingly at Ffos Las.
However, he has subsequently undergone a wind op
- and if that has sorted him out, then he should go very close
today.
Certainly, the ground will not be an excuse - and 2m4f should be the
perfect trip.
He’s also got Dickie in the saddle. I’m sure he’ll be keen to
get a winner following a disappointing Cheltenham - and it’s interesting that he
is riding at Uttoxeter rather than taking a couple of decent mounts at
Kempton.
Of his rivals, then Main Fact and Dostal Phil head the betting - and
whilst I’ve no issue with that, there are reason for opposing both of
them.
The other one I feared, was Nordano - but he was declared a non runner
earlier this morning, which made deciding on the tip, a little bit easier
!
3:35I’m really surprised to see De Rasher Counter
running in this…
He’s a class horse, who won the Hennessey on his penultimate
outing - and finished fourth in the grade 2 Cotswold chase on his most recent
outing.
He is rated 157 - and will have to carry 11st12lb today (less Ben
Jones’s 3lb claim).
That’s a huge amount of weight for a horse whose forte is
not stamina.
I’ll be surprised if he completes the race…
His presence
compresses the handicap - and means that 5 of the runners will be carrying
overweight.
In truth, I’m not sure that will matter too much - as this is
likely to be a case of survival of the fittest !
Who the fittest will be
however, I’m not so sure…
Truckers Lodge and Christmas in April, are the
obvious ones, as they are young and proven in similar conditions: and whilst
Prime Venture and Petite Power don’t have youth on their side, they too should
be able to cope with the demands of the race.
Se Mo Laoch is a very
interesting raider from Ireland - and again, I would expect him to handle
conditions.
All this said, it is a race which feels like it is going to have
an element of ‘lottery’ about it.
If forced off the fence, I would probably
side with Prime Venture. He finished fourth in the race last year - and with
first time blinkers, off a 4lb lower mark, I would expect him to be able to at
least match that performance today.
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Uttox 3:00 Kateson 0.5pt win 11/1
Mentions
Kemp 2:05 Igor (S ) & Adicci (S
)
Kemp 2:40 Downtown Getaway (P )
Uttox 2:25 Cloudy Glen (O )
Uttox
3:35 Prime Venture (O )
The letter in
brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition;
(S)peculative;
(C)onditions
